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Articles


   What is the Bayesian Resume Rating?

   Predictive and Earned Rank Systems

   The Problem with RPI, Elo, and the Colley Matrix

   NFL Win/Loss Record History

   Strength of Schedule

   March Madness Bracket Scoring

   March Madness Seed History

   The Hot Hand "Fallacy"

   Mathematical Explanation of the Bayesian Resume Rating

   The Relationship Between Bayes' Theorem and P-Values

   A Typical March Madness Bracket
​

2023 NCAA Basketball Bayesian Resume Ratings

Updated January 30th
​​
Rank Team Record against D-I teams BRR
1. Purdue 21-1 2.42
2. Houston 20-2 2.09
3. Alabama 18-3 2.08
4. Kansas 17-4 1.98
5. Florida Atlantic 19-1 1.96
6. Kansas State 18-3 1.92
7. Tennessee 18-3 1.90
8. Arizona 19-3 1.88
9. Gonzaga 17-4 1.81
10. Texas 17-4 1.79
11. Virginia 16-3 1.78
12. UCLA 17-4 1.70
13. Baylor 16-5 1.70
14. College of Charleston 20-2 1.70
15. Saint Mary's (CA) 18-4 1.69
16. New Mexico 18-3 1.66
17. San Diego State 16-4 1.66
18. Xavier 17-5 1.55
19. Marquette 17-5 1.55
20. Iowa State 15-5 1.55
21. North Carolina State 17-5 1.46
22. Auburn 16-5 1.45
23. Texas Christian 16-5 1.45
24. Missouri 16-5 1.44
25. Clemson 18-4 1.40
26. UConn 16-6 1.39
27. Memphis 17-5 1.38
28. UNC 15-6 1.37
29. Providence 17-5 1.37
30. Duke 15-6 1.36
31. Miami (FL) 16-5 1.36
32. Boise State 16-5 1.34
33. Nevada 15-6 1.34
34. Utah State 16-5 1.34
35. Indiana 15-6 1.29
36. Illinois 15-6 1.29
37. North Texas 16-5 1.27
38. Northwestern 15-5 1.26
39. USC 15-6 1.25
40. Arkansas 14-7 1.23
41. Oral Roberts 15-4 1.22
42. Michigan State 14-8 1.21
43. Kent State 15-4 1.13
44. Maryland 14-7 1.12
45. Kentucky 14-7 1.12
46. West Virginia 13-8 1.11
47. Pitt 15-7 1.08
48. Texas A&M 15-6 1.08
49. Rutgers 14-7 1.08
50. Creighton 13-8 1.07
51. Penn State 14-7 1.06
52. Southern Miss 16-4 1.06
53. Saint Louis 14-6 1.04
54. Liberty 15-5 1.04
55. VCU 16-6 1.01
56. Wake Forest 14-8 0.99
57. Santa Clara 15-7 0.99
58. Wisconsin 12-8 0.98
59. Fordham 17-4 0.98
60. Virginia Tech 13-8 0.97
61. Louisiana-Lafayette 15-4 0.97
62. Arizona State 15-7 0.96
63. Oklahoma 12-9 0.93
64. Sam Houston State 12-5 0.93
65. Mississippi State 13-8 0.92
66. Iowa 13-8 0.91
67. UNLV 13-7 0.91
68. Loyola Marymount 15-7 0.91
69. UCSB 15-3 0.90
70. Oklahoma State 12-9 0.88
71. Marshall 17-5 0.86
72. UCF 13-8 0.85
73. Drake 16-6 0.84
74. Oregon 13-9 0.84
75. Florida 12-9 0.83
76. Seton Hall 12-9 0.83
77. Utah Valley 14-6 0.80
78. Utah 15-8 0.79
79. St. John's (NY) 14-8 0.77
80. Seattle 14-6 0.75
81. Southern Illinois 16-6 0.75
82. North Carolina-Wilmington 15-6 0.72
83. Georgia 14-7 0.72
84. Cincinnati 13-8 0.71
85. Alabama-Birmingham 14-7 0.70
86. Hofstra 14-8 0.70
87. Iona 14-7 0.69
88. Kennesaw State 14-6 0.67
89. Washington 13-10 0.66
90. Temple 14-9 0.66
91. Cornell 13-5 0.65
92. Belmont 15-7 0.63
93. Tulane 13-7 0.63
94. LSU 12-9 0.63
95. Dayton 14-8 0.63
96. Toledo 14-6 0.62
97. Syracuse 13-9 0.61
98. San Jose State 12-9 0.59
99. Hawaii 15-6 0.59
100. Michigan 11-10 0.59
101. Furman 14-6 0.58
102. Rice 12-6 0.58
103. Bradley 14-8 0.56
104. Duquesne 14-8 0.56
105. Vanderbilt 10-11 0.54
106. Akron 13-6 0.54
107. Ohio State 11-10 0.53
108. UMass 13-8 0.53
109. Southern Utah 11-7 0.51
110. Quinnipiac 14-6 0.50
111. San Francisco 14-9 0.50
112. UC-Riverside 14-7 0.50
113. Colorado 12-11 0.48
114. Towson 16-7 0.48
115. Nebraska 10-12 0.47
116. BYU 12-10 0.46
117. Stephen F. Austin 12-7 0.46
118. Yale 12-6 0.46
119. Grand Canyon 12-8 0.45
120. North Carolina-Asheville 15-6 0.44
121. Eastern Washington 15-7 0.43
122. UC-Irvine 12-7 0.42
123. Texas Tech 11-10 0.41
124. Colgate 15-7 0.40
125. Middle Tennessee 11-9 0.40
126. Butler 11-12 0.40
127. Youngstown State 15-6 0.38
128. Charlotte 13-8 0.38
129. Princeton 12-6 0.37
130. Siena 15-7 0.36
131. George Mason 12-10 0.35
132. Milwaukee 12-7 0.33
133. Florida Gulf Coast 13-9 0.32
134. Ole Miss 9-12 0.32
135. Washington State 10-13 0.31
136. Villanova 10-11 0.31
137. Ball State 12-7 0.30
138. Montana State 13-8 0.29
139. Old Dominion 12-9 0.27
140. UMass-Lowell 15-6 0.27
141. James Madison 12-8 0.24
142. North Carolina-Greensboro 12-9 0.24
143. Wichita State 11-10 0.21
144. Northwestern State 13-8 0.21
145. Indiana State 13-9 0.21
146. Eastern Kentucky 11-9 0.20
147. Richmond 11-11 0.18
148. Colorado State 9-12 0.15
149. Norfolk State 10-7 0.15
150. Bryant 11-8 0.15
151. Northern Kentucky 12-9 0.15
152. Air Force 12-10 0.12
153. Vermont 11-10 0.12
154. Cleveland State 13-8 0.12
155. St. Bonaventure 11-11 0.10
156. Murray State 11-10 0.10
157. Queens (NC) 12-8 0.10
158. DePaul 9-13 0.09
159. Tarleton State 9-10 0.09
160. Missouri State 10-11 0.09
161. California Baptist 12-9 0.08
162. Boston College 10-12 0.08
163. South Dakota State 10-11 0.07
164. Western Illinois 11-8 0.07
165. Maryland-Eastern Shore 9-8 0.07
166. Harvard 10-9 0.06
167. American 14-7 0.06
168. George Washington 10-10 0.06
169. Notre Dame 10-12 0.05
170. Jacksonville 9-9 0.04
171. Davidson 9-11 0.04
172. Northern Iowa 11-10 0.03
173. UTEP 9-10 0.02
174. Grambling 11-7 0.02
175. IPFW 12-9 0.00
176. UC-Davis 11-9 0.00
177. Samford 11-8 -0.01
178. Lehigh 11-8 -0.02
179. Longwood 13-8 -0.03
180. Long Beach State 10-10 -0.03
181. Appalachian State 10-10 -0.03
182. Florida International 9-11 -0.03
183. Louisiana Tech 9-10 -0.03
184. Radford 12-9 -0.03
185. UMBC 13-9 -0.04
186. Stetson 9-10 -0.06
187. St. Joseph's 10-11 -0.06
188. Georgia Tech 7-13 -0.06
189. Troy 10-10 -0.07
190. Ohio 10-10 -0.07
191. Portland 9-13 -0.07
192. Delaware 11-11 -0.08
193. Western Kentucky 9-11 -0.10
194. St. Thomas (MN) 12-10 -0.11
195. Penn 10-11 -0.11
196. Southern Illinois-Edwardsville 11-9 -0.11
197. Rider 10-9 -0.11
198. Stanford 9-12 -0.12
199. Brown 11-10 -0.13
200. East Carolina 11-11 -0.14
201. Buffalo 8-11 -0.14
202. Sacramento State 10-10 -0.15
203. Cal State Fullerton 10-11 -0.15
204. Morehead State 10-9 -0.18
205. South Florida 9-13 -0.19
206. Howard 10-10 -0.19
207. Southeastern Louisiana 10-9 -0.19
208. UT-Martin 11-8 -0.20
209. Wofford 10-10 -0.20
210. Pacific 10-11 -0.20
211. SMU 8-14 -0.21
212. Georgia Southern 9-11 -0.21
213. Minnesota 7-13 -0.23
214. South Carolina 8-13 -0.23
215. Texas State 9-11 -0.24
216. Florida State 7-15 -0.24
217. Rhode Island 8-13 -0.25
218. Niagara 10-9 -0.26
219. Oregon State 8-13 -0.26
220. Lipscomb 10-10 -0.26
221. Wright State 11-10 -0.26
222. North Alabama 10-10 -0.28
223. Chattanooga 9-11 -0.29
224. Fresno State 6-13 -0.30
225. Weber State 9-11 -0.30
226. Drexel 11-10 -0.33
227. Southern Indiana 10-10 -0.33
228. Southeast Missouri State 10-11 -0.34
229. Texas-Rio Grande Valley 8-11 -0.35
230. Southern 9-10 -0.35
231. Montana 9-12 -0.37
232. South Dakota 8-11 -0.37
233. La Salle 8-13 -0.39
234. Fairfield 9-11 -0.39
235. San Diego 8-13 -0.40
236. UMKC 9-12 -0.40
237. Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 9-9 -0.41
238. Coastal Carolina 7-12 -0.42
239. Navy 10-11 -0.43
240. Gardner-Webb 9-11 -0.44
241. Illinois State 9-14 -0.45
242. Morgan State 7-10 -0.46
243. Abilene Christian 7-11 -0.46
244. Alcorn State 8-11 -0.46
245. South Alabama 7-13 -0.46
246. New Hampshire 8-10 -0.50
247. Louisiana-Monroe 7-13 -0.50
248. Wagner 9-8 -0.50
249. Mercer 9-12 -0.51
250. Loyola (IL) 7-13 -0.51
251. William & Mary 7-14 -0.51
252. Utah Tech 7-12 -0.51
253. Bellarmine 7-13 -0.51
254. Wyoming 5-14 -0.52
255. Army 10-11 -0.52
256. North Carolina Central 6-10 -0.53
257. North Carolina A&T 8-13 -0.53
258. Denver 10-12 -0.54
259. Western Carolina 9-11 -0.54
260. Fairleigh Dickinson 12-10 -0.54
261. Georgetown 6-16 -0.55
262. Bowling Green State 8-11 -0.56
263. Valparaiso 9-13 -0.56
264. Oakland 8-14 -0.57
265. Portland State 7-13 -0.57
266. Northern Illinois 7-12 -0.60
267. Georgia State 6-13 -0.62
268. Northeastern 8-13 -0.64
269. Winthrop 8-13 -0.64
270. Robert Morris 9-12 -0.65
271. Nicholls State 6-11 -0.65
272. UIC 8-14 -0.65
273. Boston University 9-13 -0.66
274. Northern Colorado 7-13 -0.67
275. High Point 8-12 -0.68
276. Pepperdine 5-16 -0.68
277. South Carolina Upstate 7-12 -0.69
278. Campbell 7-13 -0.69
279. North Dakota State 6-13 -0.70
280. Maine 7-12 -0.72
281. St. Peter's 8-12 -0.72
282. Binghamton 7-12 -0.73
283. North Florida 6-14 -0.74
284. New Mexico State 4-14 -0.75
285. Citadel 8-13 -0.75
286. Nebraska-Omaha 6-16 -0.77
287. Jacksonville State 7-13 -0.78
288. Dartmouth 6-13 -0.79
289. Detroit 7-15 -0.81
290. UC-San Diego 6-14 -0.81
291. Stonehill 9-14 -0.83
292. Texas A&M-Commerce 9-13 -0.83
293. Arkansas-Pine Bluff 6-12 -0.86
294. Tulsa 5-15 -0.88
295. Tennessee Tech 7-13 -0.89
296. UTSA 5-16 -0.90
297. Lafayette 7-16 -0.90
298. Arkansas State 6-14 -0.90
299. Charleston Southern 6-13 -0.90
300. Stony Brook 6-14 -0.91
301. Texas-Arlington 4-15 -0.91
302. Marist 7-13 -0.91
303. Sacred Heart 10-13 -0.95
304. Tennessee State 8-11 -0.95
305. Central Arkansas 6-16 -0.96
306. Incarnate Word 7-12 -0.96
307. Coppin State 6-17 -0.97
308. St. Francis (NY) 9-11 -0.98
309. Idaho State 6-14 -0.98
310. Central Michigan 6-13 -1.00
311. Manhattan 6-13 -1.00
312. Prairie View 6-14 -1.01
313. Texas Southern 5-14 -1.02
314. Austin Peay 5-15 -1.03
315. ETSU 6-15 -1.08
316. Northern Arizona 4-16 -1.08
317. Canisius 4-15 -1.08
318. Cal Poly 5-15 -1.09
319. University of California 3-18 -1.09
320. Jackson State 6-15 -1.11
321. Saint Francis (PA) 6-13 -1.11
322. Mount St. Mary's 6-15 -1.12
323. NJIT 5-14 -1.14
324. Loyola (MD) 6-15 -1.15
325. Cal State Bakersfield 4-15 -1.16
326. North Dakota 5-16 -1.17
327. Idaho 6-15 -1.18
328. Miami (OH) 4-14 -1.20
329. Bucknell 7-15 -1.22
330. Alabama A&M 5-13 -1.26
331. Chicago State 4-17 -1.26
332. Merrimack 5-16 -1.29
333. Columbia 4-16 -1.30
334. Holy Cross 5-16 -1.30
335. Hampton 4-17 -1.31
336. Evansville 4-19 -1.31
337. Alabama State 5-15 -1.31
338. Eastern Michigan 4-16 -1.32
339. Eastern Illinois 5-16 -1.33
340. Western Michigan 3-15 -1.33
341. McNeese State 4-17 -1.35
342. New Orleans 4-14 -1.38
343. Houston Baptist 4-15 -1.40
344. Albany (NY) 4-17 -1.41
345. Central Connecticut 7-18 -1.42
346. Bethune-Cookman 5-14 -1.42
347. Louisville 2-19 -1.42
348. Arkansas-Little Rock 5-16 -1.45
349. Monmouth 2-20 -1.55
350. Lindenwood 4-16 -1.55
351. Delaware State 2-15 -1.60
352. Lamar 3-16 -1.68
353. Cal State Northridge 2-18 -1.73
354. Virginia Military Institute 2-18 -1.74
355. South Carolina State 2-19 -1.74
356. Presbyterian 3-18 -1.84
357. Hartford 2-17 -1.91
358. Green Bay 2-21 -1.91
359. Mississippi Valley State 2-21 -1.98
360. Elon 1-19 -2.00
361. Florida A&M 1-16 -2.07
362. IUPUI 1-20 -2.26
363. LIU-Brooklyn 1-20 -2.33
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