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Articles

   What is the Bayesian Resume Rating?

   Predictive and Earned Rank Systems

   The Problem with RPI, Elo, and the Colley Matrix

   NFL Win/Loss Record History

   Strength of Schedule

   March Madness Bracket Scoring

   March Madness Seed History

   The Hot Hand "Fallacy"

   Mathematical Explanation of the Bayesian Resume Rating

   The Relationship Between Bayes' Theorem and P-Values

   A Typical March Madness Bracket
​

2022 NCAA Football Bayesian Resume Ratings

Published November 21st.
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Rank	Team	Record against FBS opponents	BRR
1.	Georgia	10-0	1.94
2.	Ohio State	11-0	1.88
3.	Texas Christian	10-0	1.86
4.	Michigan	11-0	1.79
5.	Clemson	9-1	1.46
6.	Southern California	10-1	1.45
7.	Penn State	9-2	1.26
8.	Alabama	8-2	1.24
9.	Louisiana State	8-2	1.24
10.	Tennessee	8-2	1.24
11.	Oregon	8-2	1.18
12.	Coastal Carolina	8-1	1.03
13.	Troy	8-2	0.95
14.	North Carolina	8-2	0.93
15.	Washington	8-2	0.91
16.	Notre Dame	8-3	0.89
17.	Tulane	8-2	0.89
18.	Kansas State	7-3	0.87
19.	Utah	7-3	0.87
20.	Texas-San Antonio	8-2	0.85
21.	Florida State	7-3	0.85
22.	UCLA	7-3	0.82
23.	South Alabama	8-2	0.82
24.	Cincinnati	8-2	0.80
25.	Mississippi	7-3	0.80
26.	Oregon State	7-3	0.76
27.	Texas	7-4	0.72
28.	Central Florida	7-3	0.67
29.	Mississippi State	6-4	0.57
30.	Louisville	7-4	0.56
31.	Wake Forest	6-4	0.54
32.	Boise State	7-3	0.52
33.	Oklahoma State	6-4	0.47
34.	North Carolina State	6-4	0.44
35.	South Carolina	6-4	0.41
36.	Houston	7-4	0.41
37.	Washington State	6-4	0.39
38.	Iowa	6-4	0.39
39.	Ohio	7-3	0.36
40.	Illinois	6-4	0.35
41.	Air Force	7-3	0.34
42.	Purdue	6-4	0.34
43.	Liberty	7-3	0.34
44.	Pittsburgh	6-4	0.32
45.	Maryland	6-5	0.31
46.	Arkansas	5-5	0.31
47.	James Madison	6-3	0.31
48.	Marshall	5-4	0.28
49.	Syracuse	5-5	0.28
50.	Texas Tech	5-5	0.26
51.	Fresno State	6-4	0.22
52.	Oklahoma	6-5	0.21
53.	Florida	5-5	0.20
54.	Kansas	5-5	0.19
55.	Kentucky	5-5	0.18
56.	Bowling Green State	6-4	0.18
57.	Minnesota	6-4	0.17
58.	Wyoming	6-4	0.16
59.	Toledo	6-4	0.16
60.	Utah State	6-4	0.16
61.	San Diego State	6-4	0.15
62.	Brigham Young	5-5	0.14
63.	Southern Methodist	5-5	0.13
64.	Baylor	5-5	0.13
65.	Buffalo	5-4	0.09
66.	Duke	6-4	0.07
67.	East Carolina	5-5	0.05
68.	Wisconsin	5-5	0.02
69.	Auburn	4-6	-0.02
70.	San Jose State	5-4	-0.02
71.	Western Kentucky	6-5	-0.03
72.	Michigan State	5-6	-0.06
73.	Memphis	5-5	-0.06
74.	Appalachian State	4-5	-0.13
75.	Eastern Michigan	6-4	-0.14
76.	Georgia Tech	4-6	-0.14
77.	Vanderbilt	4-6	-0.17
78.	Missouri	4-6	-0.18
79.	North Texas	5-5	-0.20
80.	Middle Tennessee State	5-5	-0.23
81.	Navy	4-6	-0.24
82.	Connecticut	5-6	-0.25
83.	Southern Mississippi	4-6	-0.28
84.	Miami (FL)	4-6	-0.33
85.	Louisiana	4-6	-0.34
86.	Alabama-Birmingham	4-6	-0.36
87.	Arizona	3-7	-0.38
88.	Georgia Southern	4-6	-0.41
89.	Rice	4-6	-0.41
90.	Indiana	3-7	-0.41
91.	Iowa State	3-7	-0.45
92.	Florida Atlantic	4-6	-0.47
93.	West Virginia	3-7	-0.48
94.	Ball State	4-6	-0.49
95.	Texas-El Paso	5-6	-0.50
96.	California	3-7	-0.55
97.	Georgia State	4-7	-0.55
98.	Miami (OH)	4-6	-0.58
99.	Texas A&M	3-7	-0.59
100.	Rutgers	3-7	-0.61
101.	Army	2-6	-0.61
102.	Louisiana-Monroe	3-7	-0.62
103.	Kent State	3-7	-0.62
104.	Stanford	2-8	-0.65
105.	Central Michigan	3-7	-0.75
106.	Nevada-Las Vegas	3-7	-0.75
107.	Arizona State	2-8	-0.79
108.	Tulsa	3-7	-0.79
109.	Western Michigan	3-7	-0.80
110.	Texas State	3-7	-0.80
111.	Boston College	2-8	-0.81
112.	Virginia	2-7	-0.81
113.	Old Dominion	3-8	-0.87
114.	Florida International	3-7	-0.94
115.	Charlotte	3-8	-0.99
116.	New Mexico State	3-6	-1.01
117.	Colorado State	2-8	-1.01
118.	Nebraska	2-8	-1.02
119.	Virginia Tech	2-8	-1.02
120.	Louisiana Tech	2-8	-1.05
121.	Northern Illinois	2-8	-1.17
122.	Nevada	2-8	-1.17
123.	Arkansas State	2-8	-1.18
124.	Colorado	1-10	-1.22
125.	Hawaii	2-9	-1.24
126.	Temple	2-8	-1.25
127.	Northwestern	1-9	-1.26
128.	New Mexico	1-9	-1.35
129.	Akron	0-9	-1.71
130.	South Florida	0-10	-1.74
131.	Massachusetts	0-10	-1.96

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