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Articles


   What is the Bayesian Resume Rating?

   Predictive and Earned Rank Systems

   The Problem with RPI, Elo, and the Colley Matrix

   NFL Win/Loss Record History

   Strength of Schedule

   March Madness Bracket Scoring

   March Madness Seed History

   The Hot Hand "Fallacy"

   Mathematical Explanation of the Bayesian Resume Rating

   The Relationship Between Bayes' Theorem and P-Values

   A Typical March Madness Bracket
​

2022 NCAA Basketball Bayesian Resume Ratings

Championship: Kansas defeated UNC​​
Rank Team Record against D-I teams BRR
1. Kansas 34-6 2.37
2. Arizona 33-4 2.31
3. Gonzaga 28-4 2.14
4. Villanova 30-8 2.09
5. Providence 27-6 2.04
6. Baylor 27-7 1.98
7. Houston 32-6 1.96
8. Auburn 28-6 1.95
9. Duke 32-7 1.94
10. Tennessee 27-8 1.93
11. UCLA 27-8 1.83
12. Purdue 29-8 1.81
13. Kentucky 26-8 1.78
14. Texas Tech 27-10 1.77
15. Wisconsin 25-8 1.73
16. Arkansas 28-9 1.71
17. UNC 29-10 1.69
18. Colorado State 24-6 1.65
19. Saint Mary's (CA) 25-8 1.64
20. Murray State 28-3 1.63
21. UConn 23-10 1.53
22. USC 26-8 1.53
23. Illinois 23-10 1.50
24. Boise State 26-8 1.47
25. Iowa 26-10 1.45
26. Creighton 23-12 1.44
27. San Diego State 23-9 1.44
28. Miami (FL) 26-11 1.42
29. Texas 22-12 1.39
30. Michigan State 23-13 1.37
31. Davidson 26-7 1.35
32. Xavier 23-13 1.33
33. Seton Hall 20-11 1.33
34. Iowa State 22-13 1.32
35. Texas A&M 26-13 1.32
36. LSU 22-12 1.31
37. Texas Christian 21-13 1.31
38. San Francisco 23-10 1.29
39. Wyoming 24-9 1.28
40. South Dakota State 28-5 1.25
41. Marquette 19-13 1.25
42. Alabama 19-14 1.24
43. Ohio State 20-12 1.23
44. North Texas 23-7 1.22
45. Notre Dame 23-11 1.22
46. Wake Forest 25-10 1.21
47. Memphis 22-11 1.21
48. VCU 22-10 1.20
49. St. Bonaventure 23-10 1.20
50. New Mexico State 24-7 1.18
51. Michigan 19-15 1.18
52. SMU 24-9 1.14
53. Virginia Tech 23-13 1.12
54. Loyola (IL) 24-8 1.10
55. Indiana 21-14 1.06
56. Alabama-Birmingham 25-8 1.06
57. Oklahoma 19-16 1.05
58. BYU 22-11 1.05
59. Colorado 21-12 1.02
60. Iona 25-8 1.00
61. Chattanooga 25-8 1.00
62. Richmond 24-13 0.98
63. Virginia 21-14 0.98
64. Saint Louis 22-12 0.97
65. Florida 20-14 0.96
66. Vermont 27-6 0.92
67. Dayton 24-11 0.92
68. Washington State 22-15 0.91
69. Belmont 24-8 0.90
70. South Carolina 17-13 0.89
71. Santa Clara 21-12 0.88
72. Oklahoma State 15-15 0.88
73. Oregon 19-15 0.87
74. Towson 25-9 0.87
75. West Virginia 16-17 0.85
76. St. John's (NY) 17-15 0.84
77. Vanderbilt 19-17 0.84
78. Toledo 25-8 0.83
79. Rutgers 18-14 0.83
80. Mississippi State 18-16 0.80
81. Grand Canyon 21-8 0.78
82. Florida State 17-14 0.75
83. North Carolina-Wilmington 25-9 0.73
84. Fresno State 22-13 0.73
85. Louisiana Tech 21-10 0.73
86. Montana State 25-8 0.71
87. Drake 23-11 0.70
88. Princeton 21-7 0.69
89. Middle Tennessee 24-11 0.69
90. Stanford 16-16 0.69
91. UNLV 17-14 0.69
92. UCF 18-12 0.68
93. Washington 17-15 0.65
94. Maryland 15-17 0.64
95. St. Peter's 21-12 0.63
96. Arizona State 14-17 0.62
97. Temple 17-12 0.62
98. Missouri State 22-11 0.61
99. Kansas State 14-17 0.61
100. Northern Iowa 19-12 0.61
101. DePaul 15-16 0.60
102. Clemson 17-16 0.60
103. Utah State 17-16 0.60
104. Syracuse 16-17 0.60
105. Hofstra 19-11 0.59
106. Furman 21-12 0.57
107. Penn State 14-17 0.57
108. Texas State 18-8 0.57
109. Ohio 24-10 0.55
110. Wichita State 15-13 0.55
111. Abilene Christian 21-11 0.54
112. Seattle 21-9 0.54
113. Stephen F. Austin 18-10 0.53
114. Butler 12-19 0.52
115. Delaware 21-13 0.51
116. Longwood 22-7 0.51
117. Akron 22-10 0.48
118. Northwestern 14-16 0.48
119. Kent State 21-11 0.46
120. Winthrop 20-9 0.44
121. Cincinnati 17-15 0.44
122. Minnesota 13-17 0.43
123. Monmouth 21-13 0.42
124. Utah Valley 18-12 0.41
125. Wagner 20-6 0.40
126. North Dakota State 21-10 0.40
127. Yale 18-12 0.39
128. Long Beach State 18-13 0.37
129. Tulane 14-15 0.37
130. Samford 18-11 0.36
131. Morehead State 20-11 0.33
132. Ole Miss 13-19 0.30
133. Southern Utah 21-12 0.30
134. Cal State Fullerton 19-11 0.29
135. Buffalo 17-11 0.28
136. UTEP 18-14 0.28
137. Western Kentucky 17-13 0.27
138. Wofford 17-13 0.25
139. Nevada 12-18 0.25
140. Louisville 13-19 0.24
141. Norfolk State 21-7 0.24
142. Liberty 19-11 0.23
143. Charlotte 17-14 0.21
144. Georgia State 15-11 0.21
145. UC-Irvine 13-10 0.19
146. East Carolina 15-15 0.18
147. College of Charleston 17-15 0.17
148. Jacksonville State 19-11 0.17
149. George Mason 14-16 0.16
150. Missouri 11-21 0.16
151. Appalachian State 16-15 0.14
152. Arkansas State 15-11 0.14
153. Weber State 19-12 0.13
154. South Alabama 17-12 0.12
155. Bradley 16-14 0.11
156. Oakland 18-12 0.10
157. Sam Houston State 16-14 0.10
158. Troy 17-12 0.10
159. Coastal Carolina 15-14 0.10
160. Colgate 22-12 0.10
161. Bryant 21-10 0.09
162. Bellarmine 16-13 0.08
163. Northern Colorado 20-15 0.08
164. Jacksonville 17-10 0.08
165. North Carolina-Greensboro 16-15 0.07
166. Portland 17-15 0.07
167. UMass 15-17 0.07
168. University of California 12-20 0.06
169. Navy 20-11 0.06
170. New Mexico 11-19 0.05
171. Pitt 11-21 0.05
172. Hawaii 15-11 0.05
173. Florida Gulf Coast 20-12 0.04
174. Fordham 16-16 0.04
175. Rhode Island 14-16 0.04
176. UC-Riverside 14-12 0.04
177. Drexel 14-14 0.03
178. Boston College 13-20 0.02
179. Cleveland State 18-11 0.02
180. Oral Roberts 16-12 0.01
181. James Madison 13-14 0.00
182. Florida Atlantic 16-15 -0.01
183. South Dakota 17-12 -0.02
184. Wright State 21-14 -0.02
185. North Carolina State 11-21 -0.03
186. Utah 11-20 -0.03
187. UCSB 15-11 -0.04
188. Nebraska 10-22 -0.04
189. Southern Illinois 15-15 -0.06
190. Siena 15-14 -0.06
191. Mercer 14-17 -0.06
192. ETSU 13-17 -0.07
193. Georgia Tech 11-20 -0.08
194. Stony Brook 17-13 -0.10
195. Cornell 13-11 -0.11
196. San Diego 13-16 -0.12
197. IPFW 19-12 -0.12
198. Boston University 21-13 -0.13
199. Virginia Military Institute 13-16 -0.14
200. Northern Kentucky 18-12 -0.14
201. Louisiana-Lafayette 14-15 -0.15
202. Gardner-Webb 15-13 -0.15
203. Texas Southern 19-13 -0.16
204. UMKC 15-12 -0.17
205. Rice 14-17 -0.18
206. Nicholls State 17-12 -0.19
207. Loyola Marymount 10-18 -0.20
208. UC-Davis 12-10 -0.21
209. St. Joseph's 11-19 -0.25
210. Manhattan 14-15 -0.25
211. Tulsa 11-20 -0.25
212. UMBC 17-14 -0.25
213. Eastern Washington 16-16 -0.26
214. Niagara 13-16 -0.26
215. Air Force 11-18 -0.26
216. Old Dominion 12-19 -0.28
217. Penn 12-16 -0.29
218. California Baptist 15-16 -0.30
219. George Washington 12-18 -0.30
220. Marist 14-16 -0.31
221. Montana 15-14 -0.32
222. Fairfield 14-18 -0.37
223. La Salle 11-19 -0.40
224. Valparaiso 12-18 -0.41
225. Quinnipiac 13-17 -0.41
226. Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 19-12 -0.41
227. North Carolina-Asheville 14-15 -0.42
228. Rider 13-19 -0.42
229. Tarleton State 11-17 -0.42
230. Campbell 13-13 -0.43
231. LIU-Brooklyn 15-14 -0.43
232. Brown 11-16 -0.44
233. Alcorn State 17-17 -0.46
234. Citadel 10-18 -0.46
235. Georgetown 6-25 -0.48
236. South Carolina Upstate 13-17 -0.48
237. Harvard 10-13 -0.48
238. Southeastern Louisiana 15-15 -0.49
239. Ball State 13-17 -0.49
240. Florida International 13-17 -0.50
241. Southern 15-14 -0.50
242. Georgia Southern 10-16 -0.50
243. New Hampshire 13-13 -0.50
244. Youngstown State 17-15 -0.50
245. Texas-Arlington 9-18 -0.51
246. Western Illinois 14-16 -0.52
247. Dixie State 9-18 -0.52
248. Detroit 13-16 -0.54
249. Marshall 10-21 -0.54
250. Illinois State 11-20 -0.55
251. Elon 8-22 -0.55
252. Georgia 6-26 -0.56
253. New Orleans 15-14 -0.58
254. South Florida 8-23 -0.58
255. Western Carolina 10-21 -0.59
256. Canisius 10-21 -0.59
257. UC-San Diego 11-16 -0.59
258. Louisiana-Monroe 10-18 -0.61
259. Portland State 12-17 -0.63
260. San Jose State 7-23 -0.65
261. Bowling Green State 11-18 -0.65
262. High Point 11-18 -0.66
263. UMass-Lowell 12-16 -0.67
264. Northeastern 9-22 -0.68
265. Howard 13-13 -0.69
266. Miami (OH) 11-18 -0.69
267. Army 13-16 -0.69
268. UIC 13-16 -0.72
269. Dartmouth 8-16 -0.73
270. Merrimack 13-16 -0.73
271. Lipscomb 11-19 -0.73
272. Loyola (MD) 13-16 -0.74
273. Albany (NY) 13-18 -0.75
274. Southeast Missouri State 12-18 -0.75
275. Mount St. Mary's 13-16 -0.75
276. Kennesaw State 9-18 -0.76
277. North Carolina Central 12-15 -0.77
278. Indiana State 8-20 -0.78
279. Northern Illinois 9-21 -0.80
280. North Florida 8-20 -0.82
281. Austin Peay 10-17 -0.84
282. Central Arkansas 9-20 -0.86
283. Arkansas-Little Rock 6-19 -0.86
284. Sacramento State 9-18 -0.89
285. Eastern Michigan 9-21 -0.89
286. Radford 9-18 -0.89
287. Binghamton 10-17 -0.89
288. Lehigh 12-19 -0.90
289. Presbyterian 9-20 -0.91
290. South Carolina State 12-16 -0.91
291. Hartford 12-20 -0.92
292. Duquesne 6-24 -0.93
293. Florida A&M 11-17 -0.93
294. North Carolina A&T 9-20 -0.94
295. NJIT 10-18 -0.97
296. Morgan State 9-15 -0.99
297. Pacific 6-22 -0.99
298. Jackson State 11-19 -0.99
299. Denver 10-20 -0.99
300. Eastern Kentucky 9-18 -0.99
301. Pepperdine 6-25 -1.01
302. Tennessee State 12-18 -1.02
303. Cal State Bakersfield 6-19 -1.03
304. Tennessee Tech 9-21 -1.05
305. Central Michigan 7-23 -1.06
306. Oregon State 3-28 -1.08
307. Grambling 10-20 -1.08
308. Maryland-Eastern Shore 8-16 -1.09
309. UTSA 7-21 -1.11
310. Idaho 7-22 -1.11
311. Alabama A&M 12-18 -1.11
312. Western Michigan 6-22 -1.12
313. Cal State Northridge 6-22 -1.12
314. Lafayette 9-20 -1.12
315. Stetson 7-19 -1.12
316. Coppin State 9-23 -1.15
317. Prairie View 8-19 -1.15
318. Southern Illinois-Edwardsville 9-21 -1.16
319. Cal Poly 6-21 -1.18
320. Bucknell 9-23 -1.19
321. Hampton 7-19 -1.20
322. American 10-22 -1.23
323. Chicago State 7-25 -1.24
324. St. Thomas (MN) 7-20 -1.25
325. Northern Arizona 7-23 -1.25
326. Texas-Rio Grande Valley 6-23 -1.28
327. Milwaukee 9-22 -1.28
328. St. Francis (NY) 9-20 -1.31
329. Sacred Heart 9-20 -1.32
330. Southern Miss 5-26 -1.32
331. Alabama State 9-21 -1.33
332. Bethune-Cookman 8-21 -1.34
333. Houston Baptist 7-18 -1.37
334. Evansville 5-24 -1.38
335. McNeese State 7-22 -1.39
336. Holy Cross 7-22 -1.41
337. Saint Francis (PA) 8-21 -1.42
338. UT-Martin 6-22 -1.42
339. William & Mary 4-27 -1.43
340. Idaho State 5-23 -1.44
341. North Alabama 5-21 -1.46
342. Central Connecticut 8-24 -1.49
343. Robert Morris 7-24 -1.49
344. Northwestern State 6-23 -1.50
345. Nebraska-Omaha 4-25 -1.60
346. Incarnate Word 5-24 -1.69
347. North Dakota 4-25 -1.74
348. Fairleigh Dickinson 4-22 -1.77
349. Columbia 3-22 -1.79
350. Arkansas-Pine Bluff 5-24 -1.79
351. Charleston Southern 3-25 -1.81
352. Maine 3-23 -1.86
353. Green Bay 4-25 -1.91
354. Eastern Illinois 3-26 -2.06
355. Mississippi Valley State 2-26 -2.35
356. IUPUI 1-26 -2.60
357. Lamar 0-27 -2.61
358. Delaware State 0-25 -2.68
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