Ratings

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​

Articles

   What is the Bayesian Resume Rating?

   Predictive and Earned Rank Systems

   The Problem with RPI, Elo, and the Colley Matrix

   NFL Win/Loss Record History

   Strength of Schedule

   March Madness Bracket Scoring

   March Madness Seed History

   The Hot Hand "Fallacy"

   Mathematical Explanation of the Bayesian Resume Rating

   The Relationship Between Bayes' Theorem and P-Values

   A Typical March Madness Bracket
​

2022 NCAA Basketball Bayesian Resume Ratings

Championship: Kansas defeated UNC​​

Rank	Team	Record against D-I teams	BRR
1.	Kansas	34-6	2.37
2.	Arizona	33-4	2.31
3.	Gonzaga	28-4	2.14
4.	Villanova	30-8	2.09
5.	Providence	27-6	2.04
6.	Baylor	27-7	1.98
7.	Houston	32-6	1.96
8.	Auburn	28-6	1.95
9.	Duke	32-7	1.94
10.	Tennessee	27-8	1.93
11.	UCLA	27-8	1.83
12.	Purdue	29-8	1.81
13.	Kentucky	26-8	1.78
14.	Texas Tech	27-10	1.77
15.	Wisconsin	25-8	1.73
16.	Arkansas	28-9	1.71
17.	UNC	29-10	1.69
18.	Colorado State	24-6	1.65
19.	Saint Mary's (CA)	25-8	1.64
20.	Murray State	28-3	1.63
21.	UConn	23-10	1.53
22.	USC	26-8	1.53
23.	Illinois	23-10	1.50
24.	Boise State	26-8	1.47
25.	Iowa	26-10	1.45
26.	Creighton	23-12	1.44
27.	San Diego State	23-9	1.44
28.	Miami (FL)	26-11	1.42
29.	Texas	22-12	1.39
30.	Michigan State	23-13	1.37
31.	Davidson	26-7	1.35
32.	Xavier	23-13	1.33
33.	Seton Hall	20-11	1.33
34.	Iowa State	22-13	1.32
35.	Texas A&M	26-13	1.32
36.	LSU	22-12	1.31
37.	Texas Christian	21-13	1.31
38.	San Francisco	23-10	1.29
39.	Wyoming	24-9	1.28
40.	South Dakota State	28-5	1.25
41.	Marquette	19-13	1.25
42.	Alabama	19-14	1.24
43.	Ohio State	20-12	1.23
44.	North Texas	23-7	1.22
45.	Notre Dame	23-11	1.22
46.	Wake Forest	25-10	1.21
47.	Memphis	22-11	1.21
48.	VCU	22-10	1.20
49.	St. Bonaventure	23-10	1.20
50.	New Mexico State	24-7	1.18
51.	Michigan	19-15	1.18
52.	SMU	24-9	1.14
53.	Virginia Tech	23-13	1.12
54.	Loyola (IL)	24-8	1.10
55.	Indiana	21-14	1.06
56.	Alabama-Birmingham	25-8	1.06
57.	Oklahoma	19-16	1.05
58.	BYU	22-11	1.05
59.	Colorado	21-12	1.02
60.	Iona	25-8	1.00
61.	Chattanooga	25-8	1.00
62.	Richmond	24-13	0.98
63.	Virginia	21-14	0.98
64.	Saint Louis	22-12	0.97
65.	Florida	20-14	0.96
66.	Vermont	27-6	0.92
67.	Dayton	24-11	0.92
68.	Washington State	22-15	0.91
69.	Belmont	24-8	0.90
70.	South Carolina	17-13	0.89
71.	Santa Clara	21-12	0.88
72.	Oklahoma State	15-15	0.88
73.	Oregon	19-15	0.87
74.	Towson	25-9	0.87
75.	West Virginia	16-17	0.85
76.	St. John's (NY)	17-15	0.84
77.	Vanderbilt	19-17	0.84
78.	Toledo	25-8	0.83
79.	Rutgers	18-14	0.83
80.	Mississippi State	18-16	0.80
81.	Grand Canyon	21-8	0.78
82.	Florida State	17-14	0.75
83.	North Carolina-Wilmington	25-9	0.73
84.	Fresno State	22-13	0.73
85.	Louisiana Tech	21-10	0.73
86.	Montana State	25-8	0.71
87.	Drake	23-11	0.70
88.	Princeton	21-7	0.69
89.	Middle Tennessee	24-11	0.69
90.	Stanford	16-16	0.69
91.	UNLV	17-14	0.69
92.	UCF	18-12	0.68
93.	Washington	17-15	0.65
94.	Maryland	15-17	0.64
95.	St. Peter's	21-12	0.63
96.	Arizona State	14-17	0.62
97.	Temple	17-12	0.62
98.	Missouri State	22-11	0.61
99.	Kansas State	14-17	0.61
100.	Northern Iowa	19-12	0.61
101.	DePaul	15-16	0.60
102.	Clemson	17-16	0.60
103.	Utah State	17-16	0.60
104.	Syracuse	16-17	0.60
105.	Hofstra	19-11	0.59
106.	Furman	21-12	0.57
107.	Penn State	14-17	0.57
108.	Texas State	18-8	0.57
109.	Ohio	24-10	0.55
110.	Wichita State	15-13	0.55
111.	Abilene Christian	21-11	0.54
112.	Seattle	21-9	0.54
113.	Stephen F. Austin	18-10	0.53
114.	Butler	12-19	0.52
115.	Delaware	21-13	0.51
116.	Longwood	22-7	0.51
117.	Akron	22-10	0.48
118.	Northwestern	14-16	0.48
119.	Kent State	21-11	0.46
120.	Winthrop	20-9	0.44
121.	Cincinnati	17-15	0.44
122.	Minnesota	13-17	0.43
123.	Monmouth	21-13	0.42
124.	Utah Valley	18-12	0.41
125.	Wagner	20-6	0.40
126.	North Dakota State	21-10	0.40
127.	Yale	18-12	0.39
128.	Long Beach State	18-13	0.37
129.	Tulane	14-15	0.37
130.	Samford	18-11	0.36
131.	Morehead State	20-11	0.33
132.	Ole Miss	13-19	0.30
133.	Southern Utah	21-12	0.30
134.	Cal State Fullerton	19-11	0.29
135.	Buffalo	17-11	0.28
136.	UTEP	18-14	0.28
137.	Western Kentucky	17-13	0.27
138.	Wofford	17-13	0.25
139.	Nevada	12-18	0.25
140.	Louisville	13-19	0.24
141.	Norfolk State	21-7	0.24
142.	Liberty	19-11	0.23
143.	Charlotte	17-14	0.21
144.	Georgia State	15-11	0.21
145.	UC-Irvine	13-10	0.19
146.	East Carolina	15-15	0.18
147.	College of Charleston	17-15	0.17
148.	Jacksonville State	19-11	0.17
149.	George Mason	14-16	0.16
150.	Missouri	11-21	0.16
151.	Appalachian State	16-15	0.14
152.	Arkansas State	15-11	0.14
153.	Weber State	19-12	0.13
154.	South Alabama	17-12	0.12
155.	Bradley	16-14	0.11
156.	Oakland	18-12	0.10
157.	Sam Houston State	16-14	0.10
158.	Troy	17-12	0.10
159.	Coastal Carolina	15-14	0.10
160.	Colgate	22-12	0.10
161.	Bryant	21-10	0.09
162.	Bellarmine	16-13	0.08
163.	Northern Colorado	20-15	0.08
164.	Jacksonville	17-10	0.08
165.	North Carolina-Greensboro	16-15	0.07
166.	Portland	17-15	0.07
167.	UMass	15-17	0.07
168.	University of California	12-20	0.06
169.	Navy	20-11	0.06
170.	New Mexico	11-19	0.05
171.	Pitt	11-21	0.05
172.	Hawaii	15-11	0.05
173.	Florida Gulf Coast	20-12	0.04
174.	Fordham	16-16	0.04
175.	Rhode Island	14-16	0.04
176.	UC-Riverside	14-12	0.04
177.	Drexel	14-14	0.03
178.	Boston College	13-20	0.02
179.	Cleveland State	18-11	0.02
180.	Oral Roberts	16-12	0.01
181.	James Madison	13-14	0.00
182.	Florida Atlantic	16-15	-0.01
183.	South Dakota	17-12	-0.02
184.	Wright State	21-14	-0.02
185.	North Carolina State	11-21	-0.03
186.	Utah	11-20	-0.03
187.	UCSB	15-11	-0.04
188.	Nebraska	10-22	-0.04
189.	Southern Illinois	15-15	-0.06
190.	Siena	15-14	-0.06
191.	Mercer	14-17	-0.06
192.	ETSU	13-17	-0.07
193.	Georgia Tech	11-20	-0.08
194.	Stony Brook	17-13	-0.10
195.	Cornell	13-11	-0.11
196.	San Diego	13-16	-0.12
197.	IPFW	19-12	-0.12
198.	Boston University	21-13	-0.13
199.	Virginia Military Institute	13-16	-0.14
200.	Northern Kentucky	18-12	-0.14
201.	Louisiana-Lafayette	14-15	-0.15
202.	Gardner-Webb	15-13	-0.15
203.	Texas Southern	19-13	-0.16
204.	UMKC	15-12	-0.17
205.	Rice	14-17	-0.18
206.	Nicholls State	17-12	-0.19
207.	Loyola Marymount	10-18	-0.20
208.	UC-Davis	12-10	-0.21
209.	St. Joseph's	11-19	-0.25
210.	Manhattan	14-15	-0.25
211.	Tulsa	11-20	-0.25
212.	UMBC	17-14	-0.25
213.	Eastern Washington	16-16	-0.26
214.	Niagara	13-16	-0.26
215.	Air Force	11-18	-0.26
216.	Old Dominion	12-19	-0.28
217.	Penn	12-16	-0.29
218.	California Baptist	15-16	-0.30
219.	George Washington	12-18	-0.30
220.	Marist	14-16	-0.31
221.	Montana	15-14	-0.32
222.	Fairfield	14-18	-0.37
223.	La Salle	11-19	-0.40
224.	Valparaiso	12-18	-0.41
225.	Quinnipiac	13-17	-0.41
226.	Texas A&M-Corpus Christi	19-12	-0.41
227.	North Carolina-Asheville	14-15	-0.42
228.	Rider	13-19	-0.42
229.	Tarleton State	11-17	-0.42
230.	Campbell	13-13	-0.43
231.	LIU-Brooklyn	15-14	-0.43
232.	Brown	11-16	-0.44
233.	Alcorn State	17-17	-0.46
234.	Citadel	10-18	-0.46
235.	Georgetown	6-25	-0.48
236.	South Carolina Upstate	13-17	-0.48
237.	Harvard	10-13	-0.48
238.	Southeastern Louisiana	15-15	-0.49
239.	Ball State	13-17	-0.49
240.	Florida International	13-17	-0.50
241.	Southern	15-14	-0.50
242.	Georgia Southern	10-16	-0.50
243.	New Hampshire	13-13	-0.50
244.	Youngstown State	17-15	-0.50
245.	Texas-Arlington	9-18	-0.51
246.	Western Illinois	14-16	-0.52
247.	Dixie State	9-18	-0.52
248.	Detroit	13-16	-0.54
249.	Marshall	10-21	-0.54
250.	Illinois State	11-20	-0.55
251.	Elon	8-22	-0.55
252.	Georgia	6-26	-0.56
253.	New Orleans	15-14	-0.58
254.	South Florida	8-23	-0.58
255.	Western Carolina	10-21	-0.59
256.	Canisius	10-21	-0.59
257.	UC-San Diego	11-16	-0.59
258.	Louisiana-Monroe	10-18	-0.61
259.	Portland State	12-17	-0.63
260.	San Jose State	7-23	-0.65
261.	Bowling Green State	11-18	-0.65
262.	High Point	11-18	-0.66
263.	UMass-Lowell	12-16	-0.67
264.	Northeastern	9-22	-0.68
265.	Howard	13-13	-0.69
266.	Miami (OH)	11-18	-0.69
267.	Army	13-16	-0.69
268.	UIC	13-16	-0.72
269.	Dartmouth	8-16	-0.73
270.	Merrimack	13-16	-0.73
271.	Lipscomb	11-19	-0.73
272.	Loyola (MD)	13-16	-0.74
273.	Albany (NY)	13-18	-0.75
274.	Southeast Missouri State	12-18	-0.75
275.	Mount St. Mary's	13-16	-0.75
276.	Kennesaw State	9-18	-0.76
277.	North Carolina Central	12-15	-0.77
278.	Indiana State	8-20	-0.78
279.	Northern Illinois	9-21	-0.80
280.	North Florida	8-20	-0.82
281.	Austin Peay	10-17	-0.84
282.	Central Arkansas	9-20	-0.86
283.	Arkansas-Little Rock	6-19	-0.86
284.	Sacramento State	9-18	-0.89
285.	Eastern Michigan	9-21	-0.89
286.	Radford	9-18	-0.89
287.	Binghamton	10-17	-0.89
288.	Lehigh	12-19	-0.90
289.	Presbyterian	9-20	-0.91
290.	South Carolina State	12-16	-0.91
291.	Hartford	12-20	-0.92
292.	Duquesne	6-24	-0.93
293.	Florida A&M	11-17	-0.93
294.	North Carolina A&T	9-20	-0.94
295.	NJIT	10-18	-0.97
296.	Morgan State	9-15	-0.99
297.	Pacific	6-22	-0.99
298.	Jackson State	11-19	-0.99
299.	Denver	10-20	-0.99
300.	Eastern Kentucky	9-18	-0.99
301.	Pepperdine	6-25	-1.01
302.	Tennessee State	12-18	-1.02
303.	Cal State Bakersfield	6-19	-1.03
304.	Tennessee Tech	9-21	-1.05
305.	Central Michigan	7-23	-1.06
306.	Oregon State	3-28	-1.08
307.	Grambling	10-20	-1.08
308.	Maryland-Eastern Shore	8-16	-1.09
309.	UTSA	7-21	-1.11
310.	Idaho	7-22	-1.11
311.	Alabama A&M	12-18	-1.11
312.	Western Michigan	6-22	-1.12
313.	Cal State Northridge	6-22	-1.12
314.	Lafayette	9-20	-1.12
315.	Stetson	7-19	-1.12
316.	Coppin State	9-23	-1.15
317.	Prairie View	8-19	-1.15
318.	Southern Illinois-Edwardsville	9-21	-1.16
319.	Cal Poly	6-21	-1.18
320.	Bucknell	9-23	-1.19
321.	Hampton	7-19	-1.20
322.	American	10-22	-1.23
323.	Chicago State	7-25	-1.24
324.	St. Thomas (MN)	7-20	-1.25
325.	Northern Arizona	7-23	-1.25
326.	Texas-Rio Grande Valley	6-23	-1.28
327.	Milwaukee	9-22	-1.28
328.	St. Francis (NY)	9-20	-1.31
329.	Sacred Heart	9-20	-1.32
330.	Southern Miss	5-26	-1.32
331.	Alabama State	9-21	-1.33
332.	Bethune-Cookman	8-21	-1.34
333.	Houston Baptist	7-18	-1.37
334.	Evansville	5-24	-1.38
335.	McNeese State	7-22	-1.39
336.	Holy Cross	7-22	-1.41
337.	Saint Francis (PA)	8-21	-1.42
338.	UT-Martin	6-22	-1.42
339.	William & Mary	4-27	-1.43
340.	Idaho State	5-23	-1.44
341.	North Alabama	5-21	-1.46
342.	Central Connecticut	8-24	-1.49
343.	Robert Morris	7-24	-1.49
344.	Northwestern State	6-23	-1.50
345.	Nebraska-Omaha	4-25	-1.60
346.	Incarnate Word	5-24	-1.69
347.	North Dakota	4-25	-1.74
348.	Fairleigh Dickinson	4-22	-1.77
349.	Columbia	3-22	-1.79
350.	Arkansas-Pine Bluff	5-24	-1.79
351.	Charleston Southern	3-25	-1.81
352.	Maine	3-23	-1.86
353.	Green Bay	4-25	-1.91
354.	Eastern Illinois	3-26	-2.06
355.	Mississippi Valley State	2-26	-2.35
356.	IUPUI	1-26	-2.60
357.	Lamar	0-27	-2.61
358.	Delaware State	0-25	-2.68

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