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Articles

   What is the Bayesian Resume Rating?

   Predictive and Earned Rank Systems

   The Problem with RPI, Elo, and the Colley Matrix

   NFL Win/Loss Record History

   Strength of Schedule

   March Madness Bracket Scoring

   March Madness Seed History

   The Hot Hand "Fallacy"

   Mathematical Explanation of the Bayesian Resume Rating

   The Relationship Between Bayes' Theorem and P-Values

   A Typical March Madness Bracket
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2021 NCAA Football Bayesian Resume Ratings

Published October 24th.
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Rank	Team	Record against FBS opponents	BRR
1.	Georgia	7-0	1.60
2.	Michigan	7-0	1.50
3.	Wake Forest	6-0	1.37
4.	Oklahoma	7-0	1.34
5.	Cincinnati	6-0	1.32
6.	Texas-San Antonio	7-0	1.24
7.	San Diego State	6-0	1.21
8.	Michigan State	6-0	1.20
9.	Notre Dame	6-1	1.16
10.	Alabama	6-1	1.10
11.	Iowa	6-1	1.08
12.	Oklahoma State	5-1	1.07
13.	Ohio State	6-1	1.02
14.	Kentucky	5-1	1.02
15.	Southern Methodist	6-0	1.01
16.	Mississippi	5-1	0.96
17.	Baylor	5-1	0.95
18.	Oregon	5-1	0.87
19.	Pittsburgh	5-1	0.78
20.	Brigham Young	6-2	0.76
21.	Texas A&M	6-2	0.73
22.	Louisiana	5-1	0.69
23.	Houston	5-1	0.67
24.	Virginia	5-2	0.65
25.	Air Force	5-2	0.64
26.	Coastal Carolina	5-1	0.64
27.	Northern Illinois	5-2	0.58
28.	Iowa State	4-2	0.57
29.	Auburn	4-2	0.56
30.	Penn State	4-2	0.53
31.	Fresno State	5-2	0.51
32.	Minnesota	5-2	0.50
33.	Texas-El Paso	5-1	0.49
34.	Wisconsin	4-3	0.48
35.	Utah State	4-2	0.46
36.	Appalachian State	4-2	0.45
37.	Arkansas	4-3	0.45
38.	Texas	4-3	0.43
39.	Oregon State	4-2	0.41
40.	UCLA	5-3	0.38
41.	Arizona State	4-2	0.38
42.	Purdue	4-3	0.38
43.	Liberty	5-2	0.35
44.	North Carolina State	4-2	0.32
45.	Nevada	4-2	0.31
46.	Kansas State	3-3	0.27
47.	Western Michigan	4-3	0.26
48.	Louisville	3-3	0.25
49.	Florida	4-3	0.24
50.	Mississippi State	4-3	0.24
51.	Utah	3-3	0.21
52.	Clemson	3-3	0.17
53.	Maryland	3-3	0.16
54.	Army	4-3	0.15
55.	North Carolina	4-3	0.14
56.	Florida State	3-3	0.14
57.	Louisiana-Monroe	3-3	0.11
58.	Boise State	3-4	0.11
59.	Texas Tech	4-3	0.07
60.	Eastern Michigan	4-3	0.05
61.	Louisiana State	3-4	0.04
62.	Tulsa	3-3	0.03
63.	Alabama-Birmingham	4-3	0.02
64.	Central Florida	3-3	-0.01
65.	Colorado State	3-3	-0.02
66.	Wyoming	3-3	-0.02
67.	South Carolina	3-4	-0.07
68.	Tennessee	3-4	-0.09
69.	Miami (FL)	2-4	-0.11
70.	Stanford	3-4	-0.11
71.	Washington	3-3	-0.11
72.	Boston College	3-3	-0.11
73.	Ball State	3-4	-0.14
74.	Washington State	3-4	-0.15
75.	Florida Atlantic	3-3	-0.15
76.	Georgia State	3-4	-0.15
77.	Illinois	3-5	-0.17
78.	Toledo	3-4	-0.17
79.	Syracuse	3-4	-0.18
80.	Miami (OH)	3-4	-0.19
81.	Southern California	3-4	-0.19
82.	Troy	3-3	-0.20
83.	Kent State	3-4	-0.25
84.	Rutgers	2-4	-0.26
85.	Charlotte	3-3	-0.26
86.	South Alabama	3-3	-0.26
87.	Georgia Tech	2-4	-0.28
88.	West Virginia	2-4	-0.30
89.	Memphis	3-4	-0.30
90.	Hawaii	3-4	-0.31
91.	Texas Christian	2-4	-0.32
92.	Rice	2-4	-0.32
93.	San Jose State	3-4	-0.34
94.	Marshall	3-3	-0.35
95.	Virginia Tech	2-4	-0.35
96.	Nebraska	2-5	-0.38
97.	Central Michigan	3-4	-0.42
98.	Northwestern	2-4	-0.45
99.	Missouri	2-4	-0.47
100.	Buffalo	3-4	-0.48
101.	East Carolina	2-4	-0.48
102.	New Mexico	2-5	-0.50
103.	Middle Tennessee State	2-4	-0.53
104.	Texas State	2-4	-0.54
105.	Western Kentucky	2-4	-0.54
106.	Indiana	1-5	-0.55
107.	Duke	2-4	-0.56
108.	Temple	2-4	-0.56
109.	Vanderbilt	2-5	-0.60
110.	South Florida	1-5	-0.76
111.	Louisiana Tech	1-5	-0.77
112.	Navy	1-6	-0.83
113.	California	1-5	-0.93
114.	Georgia Southern	1-5	-0.98
115.	Colorado	1-5	-0.98
116.	Bowling Green State	1-6	-1.05
117.	Massachusetts	1-6	-1.08
118.	Tulane	0-6	-1.15
119.	Kansas	0-6	-1.18
120.	Nevada-Las Vegas	0-6	-1.18
121.	Akron	1-6	-1.20
122.	Ohio	1-6	-1.21
123.	Arizona	0-6	-1.25
124.	Southern Mississippi	0-6	-1.32
125.	Old Dominion	0-6	-1.34
126.	Arkansas State	0-6	-1.39
127.	North Texas	0-6	-1.40
128.	New Mexico State	0-7	-1.47
129.	Florida International	0-6	-1.50
130.	Connecticut	0-7	-1.58

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