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Articles


   What is the Bayesian Resume Rating?

   Predictive and Earned Rank Systems

   The Problem with RPI, Elo, and the Colley Matrix

   NFL Win/Loss Record History

   Strength of Schedule

   March Madness Bracket Scoring

   March Madness Seed History

   The Hot Hand "Fallacy"

   Mathematical Explanation of the Bayesian Resume Rating

   The Relationship Between Bayes' Theorem and P-Values

   A Typical March Madness Bracket
​

2023 NCAA Basketball Bayesian Resume Ratings

Updated March 27th
​​
Rank Team Record against D-I teams BRR
1. Alabama 31-6 2.33
2. Houston 33-4 2.29
3. Florida Atlantic 33-3 2.22
4. Gonzaga 30-6 2.16
5. San Diego State 30-6 2.12
6. Kansas 28-8 2.09
7. UCLA 31-6 2.04
8. Purdue 29-6 2.00
9. Texas 29-9 1.98
10. Marquette 29-7 1.91
11. UConn 29-8 1.89
12. Miami (FL) 29-7 1.86
13. Arizona 28-7 1.77
14. Duke 27-9 1.76
15. Saint Mary's (CA) 26-8 1.74
16. Kansas State 26-10 1.66
17. Baylor 23-11 1.63
18. College of Charleston 30-4 1.63
19. Xavier 27-10 1.63
20. Virginia 25-8 1.60
21. Memphis 26-9 1.60
22. North Texas 27-7 1.60
23. Tennessee 25-11 1.58
24. Utah State 25-9 1.54
25. Missouri 25-10 1.52
26. Texas A&M 25-10 1.48
27. Oral Roberts 26-5 1.45
28. Indiana 23-12 1.40
29. Alabama-Birmingham 27-9 1.39
30. VCU 27-8 1.37
31. Boise State 23-10 1.37
32. Arkansas 22-14 1.36
33. Creighton 24-13 1.35
34. Kentucky 22-12 1.33
35. Texas Christian 22-13 1.29
36. North Carolina State 23-11 1.28
37. Michigan State 21-13 1.27
38. Auburn 21-13 1.26
39. Northwestern 22-12 1.22
40. Iowa State 19-14 1.20
41. Penn State 23-14 1.20
42. Maryland 22-13 1.20
43. Kent State 26-7 1.19
44. Nevada 21-11 1.18
45. Pitt 24-12 1.17
46. Drake 26-8 1.17
47. West Virginia 19-15 1.16
48. Vanderbilt 22-15 1.16
49. Utah Valley 25-8 1.14
50. UNC 20-13 1.13
51. USC 22-11 1.13
52. Mississippi State 21-13 1.10
53. Illinois 20-13 1.09
54. Santa Clara 22-10 1.09
55. Providence 21-12 1.06
56. Liberty 24-9 1.05
57. Oklahoma State 20-16 1.05
58. Wisconsin 20-14 1.05
59. Arizona State 23-13 1.04
60. Sam Houston State 22-8 1.04
61. Clemson 23-11 1.00
62. New Mexico 21-12 0.99
63. Bradley 24-10 0.97
64. Fordham 25-8 0.95
65. Louisiana-Lafayette 23-8 0.95
66. Iona 27-8 0.95
67. Oregon 21-15 0.94
68. Cincinnati 22-13 0.93
69. Iowa 19-14 0.92
70. Toledo 26-8 0.92
71. Southern Miss 22-8 0.92
72. Kennesaw State 23-9 0.88
73. Saint Louis 20-12 0.87
74. Hofstra 24-10 0.85
75. Furman 25-8 0.84
76. Rutgers 19-15 0.84
77. Wake Forest 19-14 0.82
78. Michigan 18-16 0.81
79. Tulane 20-11 0.80
80. Oklahoma 15-17 0.80
81. Virginia Tech 19-15 0.80
82. Marshall 23-8 0.79
83. Dayton 22-12 0.78
84. San Jose State 20-14 0.77
85. Princeton 21-9 0.77
86. UNLV 18-13 0.76
87. UCSB 25-8 0.76
88. North Carolina-Wilmington 22-10 0.72
89. Loyola Marymount 18-12 0.70
90. Southern Illinois 22-10 0.70
91. Florida 16-17 0.69
92. Texas Tech 16-16 0.68
93. Grand Canyon 21-12 0.68
94. North Carolina-Asheville 25-8 0.67
95. Nebraska 16-16 0.67
96. UCF 19-15 0.67
97. St. John's (NY) 18-15 0.64
98. Yale 19-9 0.63
99. Villanova 17-17 0.59
100. Ohio State 16-19 0.58
101. Seton Hall 16-16 0.58
102. Vermont 22-11 0.58
103. Colorado 18-17 0.58
104. Charlotte 22-14 0.58
105. Middle Tennessee 17-14 0.57
106. Montana State 23-10 0.57
107. San Francisco 19-14 0.57
108. Colgate 25-9 0.57
109. Akron 20-11 0.56
110. George Mason 20-13 0.55
111. BYU 17-15 0.55
112. Belmont 20-11 0.55
113. Southern Utah 19-13 0.52
114. Duquesne 20-13 0.50
115. Syracuse 17-15 0.50
116. Washington State 17-17 0.48
117. Utah 17-15 0.45
118. UMass-Lowell 24-8 0.44
119. James Madison 19-11 0.43
120. Seattle 18-12 0.42
121. UC-Irvine 21-12 0.42
122. Washington 16-16 0.42
123. Temple 16-16 0.42
124. Eastern Kentucky 20-14 0.41
125. Old Dominion 18-12 0.40
126. UC-Riverside 21-12 0.40
127. Wichita State 17-15 0.40
128. Eastern Washington 22-11 0.38
129. Georgia 16-16 0.37
130. Hawaii 21-11 0.37
131. Indiana State 22-13 0.33
132. Towson 21-12 0.33
133. Boston College 16-17 0.33
134. Butler 14-18 0.32
135. Youngstown State 22-10 0.30
136. Northern Kentucky 20-13 0.29
137. South Dakota State 18-13 0.26
138. Colorado State 14-18 0.26
139. Cal State Fullerton 18-13 0.26
140. LSU 14-19 0.26
141. Rice 16-16 0.26
142. Troy 17-13 0.23
143. Davidson 15-16 0.23
144. North Carolina-Greensboro 18-12 0.22
145. Stephen F. Austin 16-13 0.21
146. Western Kentucky 15-16 0.20
147. Missouri State 16-15 0.20
148. Penn 16-13 0.20
149. Cornell 15-11 0.19
150. Grambling 22-9 0.19
151. Samford 18-10 0.17
152. Northwestern State 21-11 0.16
153. Milwaukee 19-12 0.14
154. South Alabama 17-16 0.14
155. Ball State 18-12 0.12
156. Ole Miss 12-21 0.12
157. Norfolk State 18-11 0.11
158. Stanford 14-19 0.09
159. Murray State 16-15 0.09
160. Howard 19-13 0.09
161. Lipscomb 17-13 0.08
162. Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 20-11 0.08
163. Georgia Tech 13-18 0.08
164. Cleveland State 20-13 0.07
165. UMass 15-16 0.06
166. Morehead State 18-12 0.05
167. Ohio 18-14 0.04
168. Quinnipiac 19-12 0.03
169. Richmond 15-18 0.03
170. Stetson 15-14 0.01
171. East Carolina 16-17 0.01
172. George Washington 15-16 -0.01
173. St. Joseph's 16-17 -0.03
174. UC-Davis 16-14 -0.05
175. Tarleton State 13-17 -0.05
176. Radford 19-15 -0.06
177. Brown 14-13 -0.06
178. Florida Gulf Coast 16-15 -0.07
179. Louisiana Tech 12-18 -0.07
180. St. Thomas (MN) 17-14 -0.08
181. UTEP 12-18 -0.08
182. Montana 16-14 -0.09
183. Bryant 15-13 -0.09
184. California Baptist 15-16 -0.11
185. Longwood 18-12 -0.11
186. Queens (NC) 15-15 -0.11
187. South Florida 14-18 -0.11
188. Air Force 14-18 -0.12
189. North Carolina Central 14-12 -0.12
190. North Alabama 15-14 -0.13
191. Maryland-Eastern Shore 14-13 -0.13
192. St. Bonaventure 14-18 -0.13
193. Long Beach State 15-16 -0.14
194. South Carolina 11-21 -0.14
195. Florida International 12-18 -0.15
196. Delaware 16-16 -0.15
197. Weber State 16-15 -0.16
198. DePaul 10-23 -0.16
199. La Salle 15-19 -0.16
200. Pacific 14-17 -0.17
201. Buffalo 13-17 -0.17
202. Portland 12-19 -0.19
203. Navy 17-13 -0.19
204. Georgia Southern 14-16 -0.19
205. Notre Dame 11-21 -0.20
206. Harvard 12-14 -0.20
207. Alcorn State 18-14 -0.21
208. Appalachian State 13-16 -0.21
209. Texas State 14-18 -0.22
210. Drexel 16-15 -0.23
211. Fresno State 10-20 -0.23
212. Rider 15-14 -0.26
213. Siena 17-15 -0.26
214. North Dakota State 14-17 -0.27
215. Northern Iowa 13-18 -0.27
216. UMBC 17-14 -0.29
217. Chattanooga 15-17 -0.31
218. SMU 10-22 -0.33
219. Wright State 16-15 -0.33
220. Bellarmine 12-18 -0.33
221. IPFW 15-15 -0.34
222. Minnesota 9-22 -0.34
223. Florida State 9-23 -0.35
224. Southern Illinois-Edwardsville 16-14 -0.35
225. North Florida 12-17 -0.36
226. Wyoming 8-22 -0.36
227. Western Illinois 13-14 -0.37
228. Niagara 15-15 -0.37
229. Western Carolina 15-16 -0.37
230. Utah Tech 11-19 -0.38
231. Southeastern Louisiana 15-14 -0.39
232. Wofford 14-16 -0.39
233. South Carolina Upstate 14-16 -0.40
234. Texas-Rio Grande Valley 11-17 -0.41
235. Oregon State 10-21 -0.42
236. Southeast Missouri State 17-17 -0.42
237. Jacksonville 10-16 -0.43
238. New Hampshire 13-15 -0.44
239. Lehigh 14-14 -0.44
240. Abilene Christian 9-17 -0.45
241. UT-Martin 15-14 -0.50
242. Gardner-Webb 13-16 -0.50
243. Winthrop 13-17 -0.50
244. New Mexico State 6-15 -0.50
245. American 17-15 -0.51
246. Fairleigh Dickinson 19-16 -0.52
247. Campbell 14-18 -0.54
248. San Diego 9-20 -0.57
249. Detroit 13-19 -0.57
250. Loyola (IL) 10-21 -0.60
251. Army 15-16 -0.60
252. Sacramento State 12-18 -0.61
253. Texas-Arlington 8-21 -0.61
254. Tennessee State 14-14 -0.61
255. Oakland 12-19 -0.61
256. Merrimack 16-16 -0.62
257. Rhode Island 9-22 -0.62
258. Robert Morris 14-17 -0.62
259. Northern Colorado 12-19 -0.63
260. Jacksonville State 10-18 -0.63
261. Nicholls State 12-15 -0.64
262. Maine 11-17 -0.65
263. Northern Illinois 12-18 -0.65
264. Boston University 14-17 -0.65
265. Morgan State 11-16 -0.66
266. UTSA 8-22 -0.66
267. Tennessee Tech 13-17 -0.67
268. Pepperdine 7-22 -0.67
269. Fairfield 12-18 -0.67
270. High Point 12-17 -0.68
271. Mercer 12-19 -0.70
272. Southern Indiana 13-17 -0.71
273. Georgetown 7-25 -0.71
274. St. Peter's 13-18 -0.71
275. Illinois State 11-21 -0.72
276. Denver 13-17 -0.73
277. Binghamton 11-18 -0.74
278. Wagner 13-13 -0.74
279. North Dakota 11-20 -0.75
280. UIC 11-20 -0.75
281. William & Mary 11-20 -0.75
282. South Dakota 10-19 -0.76
283. Marist 13-20 -0.76
284. Mount St. Mary's 12-20 -0.77
285. Portland State 10-19 -0.79
286. Manhattan 11-18 -0.79
287. Dartmouth 8-18 -0.80
288. UMKC 10-20 -0.83
289. Southern 13-17 -0.83
290. Valparaiso 10-21 -0.83
291. Northern Arizona 10-23 -0.84
292. North Carolina A&T 10-19 -0.84
293. Jackson State 14-19 -0.85
294. Louisiana-Monroe 8-21 -0.85
295. Stonehill 13-17 -0.85
296. Northeastern 10-20 -0.86
297. Coastal Carolina 8-20 -0.86
298. Arkansas State 10-20 -0.86
299. Canisius 9-20 -0.90
300. Sacred Heart 15-17 -0.90
301. ETSU 10-20 -0.92
302. Texas Southern 12-21 -0.93
303. Georgia State 7-21 -0.95
304. UC-San Diego 8-20 -0.95
305. Lafayette 11-23 -0.96
306. Miami (OH) 9-20 -0.97
307. Loyola (MD) 11-20 -0.99
308. Alabama A&M 12-18 -1.00
309. Texas A&M-Commerce 12-20 -1.00
310. Prairie View 11-19 -1.01
311. Bowling Green State 9-20 -1.02
312. Coppin State 9-23 -1.02
313. Cal State Bakersfield 9-22 -1.02
314. Central Arkansas 8-22 -1.02
315. Nebraska-Omaha 8-23 -1.03
316. Stony Brook 9-22 -1.04
317. Idaho State 9-21 -1.05
318. St. Francis (NY) 12-16 -1.07
319. Bucknell 11-20 -1.07
320. Saint Francis (PA) 11-18 -1.11
321. Louisville 4-28 -1.12
322. New Orleans 10-20 -1.16
323. Charleston Southern 8-21 -1.16
324. McNeese State 10-23 -1.16
325. Citadel 9-22 -1.18
326. Central Michigan 8-21 -1.18
327. Austin Peay 6-22 -1.18
328. Tulsa 5-25 -1.20
329. Incarnate Word 9-19 -1.21
330. Eastern Michigan 7-23 -1.22
331. Bethune-Cookman 10-20 -1.28
332. Monmouth 7-26 -1.29
333. Chicago State 7-20 -1.29
334. Idaho 8-22 -1.30
335. Arkansas-Little Rock 8-21 -1.30
336. Hampton 7-24 -1.30
337. Lindenwood 8-21 -1.32
338. Holy Cross 8-22 -1.32
339. Cal Poly 6-25 -1.34
340. Columbia 5-22 -1.36
341. Central Connecticut 10-22 -1.38
342. University of California 3-29 -1.39
343. Eastern Illinois 7-22 -1.45
344. NJIT 6-23 -1.46
345. Evansville 5-27 -1.47
346. Albany (NY) 6-23 -1.48
347. Houston Baptist 7-22 -1.50
348. Elon 6-24 -1.50
349. Western Michigan 5-23 -1.52
350. Cal State Northridge 5-25 -1.55
351. Delaware State 5-23 -1.60
352. Arkansas-Pine Bluff 6-21 -1.61
353. Lamar 6-22 -1.61
354. South Carolina State 4-26 -1.64
355. Alabama State 7-23 -1.64
356. Virginia Military Institute 4-25 -1.73
357. Florida A&M 5-22 -1.77
358. Mississippi Valley State 5-27 -1.88
359. Green Bay 3-29 -2.04
360. Presbyterian 3-27 -2.11
361. IUPUI 3-27 -2.16
362. Hartford 2-23 -2.20
363. LIU-Brooklyn 1-26 -2.55
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