Ratings

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Articles

   What is the Bayesian Resume Rating?

   Predictive and Earned Rank Systems

   The Problem with RPI, Elo, and the Colley Matrix

   NFL Win/Loss Record History

   Strength of Schedule

   March Madness Bracket Scoring

   March Madness Seed History

   The Hot Hand "Fallacy"

   Mathematical Explanation of the Bayesian Resume Rating

   The Relationship Between Bayes' Theorem and P-Values

   A Typical March Madness Bracket
​

2023 NCAA Basketball Bayesian Resume Ratings

Updated March 27th
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Rank	Team	Record against D-I teams	BRR
1.	Alabama	31-6	2.33
2.	Houston	33-4	2.29
3.	Florida Atlantic	33-3	2.22
4.	Gonzaga	30-6	2.16
5.	San Diego State	30-6	2.12
6.	Kansas	28-8	2.09
7.	UCLA	31-6	2.04
8.	Purdue	29-6	2.00
9.	Texas	29-9	1.98
10.	Marquette	29-7	1.91
11.	UConn	29-8	1.89
12.	Miami (FL)	29-7	1.86
13.	Arizona	28-7	1.77
14.	Duke	27-9	1.76
15.	Saint Mary's (CA)	26-8	1.74
16.	Kansas State	26-10	1.66
17.	Baylor	23-11	1.63
18.	College of Charleston	30-4	1.63
19.	Xavier	27-10	1.63
20.	Virginia	25-8	1.60
21.	Memphis	26-9	1.60
22.	North Texas	27-7	1.60
23.	Tennessee	25-11	1.58
24.	Utah State	25-9	1.54
25.	Missouri	25-10	1.52
26.	Texas A&M	25-10	1.48
27.	Oral Roberts	26-5	1.45
28.	Indiana	23-12	1.40
29.	Alabama-Birmingham	27-9	1.39
30.	VCU	27-8	1.37
31.	Boise State	23-10	1.37
32.	Arkansas	22-14	1.36
33.	Creighton	24-13	1.35
34.	Kentucky	22-12	1.33
35.	Texas Christian	22-13	1.29
36.	North Carolina State	23-11	1.28
37.	Michigan State	21-13	1.27
38.	Auburn	21-13	1.26
39.	Northwestern	22-12	1.22
40.	Iowa State	19-14	1.20
41.	Penn State	23-14	1.20
42.	Maryland	22-13	1.20
43.	Kent State	26-7	1.19
44.	Nevada	21-11	1.18
45.	Pitt	24-12	1.17
46.	Drake	26-8	1.17
47.	West Virginia	19-15	1.16
48.	Vanderbilt	22-15	1.16
49.	Utah Valley	25-8	1.14
50.	UNC	20-13	1.13
51.	USC	22-11	1.13
52.	Mississippi State	21-13	1.10
53.	Illinois	20-13	1.09
54.	Santa Clara	22-10	1.09
55.	Providence	21-12	1.06
56.	Liberty	24-9	1.05
57.	Oklahoma State	20-16	1.05
58.	Wisconsin	20-14	1.05
59.	Arizona State	23-13	1.04
60.	Sam Houston State	22-8	1.04
61.	Clemson	23-11	1.00
62.	New Mexico	21-12	0.99
63.	Bradley	24-10	0.97
64.	Fordham	25-8	0.95
65.	Louisiana-Lafayette	23-8	0.95
66.	Iona	27-8	0.95
67.	Oregon	21-15	0.94
68.	Cincinnati	22-13	0.93
69.	Iowa	19-14	0.92
70.	Toledo	26-8	0.92
71.	Southern Miss	22-8	0.92
72.	Kennesaw State	23-9	0.88
73.	Saint Louis	20-12	0.87
74.	Hofstra	24-10	0.85
75.	Furman	25-8	0.84
76.	Rutgers	19-15	0.84
77.	Wake Forest	19-14	0.82
78.	Michigan	18-16	0.81
79.	Tulane	20-11	0.80
80.	Oklahoma	15-17	0.80
81.	Virginia Tech	19-15	0.80
82.	Marshall	23-8	0.79
83.	Dayton	22-12	0.78
84.	San Jose State	20-14	0.77
85.	Princeton	21-9	0.77
86.	UNLV	18-13	0.76
87.	UCSB	25-8	0.76
88.	North Carolina-Wilmington	22-10	0.72
89.	Loyola Marymount	18-12	0.70
90.	Southern Illinois	22-10	0.70
91.	Florida	16-17	0.69
92.	Texas Tech	16-16	0.68
93.	Grand Canyon	21-12	0.68
94.	North Carolina-Asheville	25-8	0.67
95.	Nebraska	16-16	0.67
96.	UCF	19-15	0.67
97.	St. John's (NY)	18-15	0.64
98.	Yale	19-9	0.63
99.	Villanova	17-17	0.59
100.	Ohio State	16-19	0.58
101.	Seton Hall	16-16	0.58
102.	Vermont	22-11	0.58
103.	Colorado	18-17	0.58
104.	Charlotte	22-14	0.58
105.	Middle Tennessee	17-14	0.57
106.	Montana State	23-10	0.57
107.	San Francisco	19-14	0.57
108.	Colgate	25-9	0.57
109.	Akron	20-11	0.56
110.	George Mason	20-13	0.55
111.	BYU	17-15	0.55
112.	Belmont	20-11	0.55
113.	Southern Utah	19-13	0.52
114.	Duquesne	20-13	0.50
115.	Syracuse	17-15	0.50
116.	Washington State	17-17	0.48
117.	Utah	17-15	0.45
118.	UMass-Lowell	24-8	0.44
119.	James Madison	19-11	0.43
120.	Seattle	18-12	0.42
121.	UC-Irvine	21-12	0.42
122.	Washington	16-16	0.42
123.	Temple	16-16	0.42
124.	Eastern Kentucky	20-14	0.41
125.	Old Dominion	18-12	0.40
126.	UC-Riverside	21-12	0.40
127.	Wichita State	17-15	0.40
128.	Eastern Washington	22-11	0.38
129.	Georgia	16-16	0.37
130.	Hawaii	21-11	0.37
131.	Indiana State	22-13	0.33
132.	Towson	21-12	0.33
133.	Boston College	16-17	0.33
134.	Butler	14-18	0.32
135.	Youngstown State	22-10	0.30
136.	Northern Kentucky	20-13	0.29
137.	South Dakota State	18-13	0.26
138.	Colorado State	14-18	0.26
139.	Cal State Fullerton	18-13	0.26
140.	LSU	14-19	0.26
141.	Rice	16-16	0.26
142.	Troy	17-13	0.23
143.	Davidson	15-16	0.23
144.	North Carolina-Greensboro	18-12	0.22
145.	Stephen F. Austin	16-13	0.21
146.	Western Kentucky	15-16	0.20
147.	Missouri State	16-15	0.20
148.	Penn	16-13	0.20
149.	Cornell	15-11	0.19
150.	Grambling	22-9	0.19
151.	Samford	18-10	0.17
152.	Northwestern State	21-11	0.16
153.	Milwaukee	19-12	0.14
154.	South Alabama	17-16	0.14
155.	Ball State	18-12	0.12
156.	Ole Miss	12-21	0.12
157.	Norfolk State	18-11	0.11
158.	Stanford	14-19	0.09
159.	Murray State	16-15	0.09
160.	Howard	19-13	0.09
161.	Lipscomb	17-13	0.08
162.	Texas A&M-Corpus Christi	20-11	0.08
163.	Georgia Tech	13-18	0.08
164.	Cleveland State	20-13	0.07
165.	UMass	15-16	0.06
166.	Morehead State	18-12	0.05
167.	Ohio	18-14	0.04
168.	Quinnipiac	19-12	0.03
169.	Richmond	15-18	0.03
170.	Stetson	15-14	0.01
171.	East Carolina	16-17	0.01
172.	George Washington	15-16	-0.01
173.	St. Joseph's	16-17	-0.03
174.	UC-Davis	16-14	-0.05
175.	Tarleton State	13-17	-0.05
176.	Radford	19-15	-0.06
177.	Brown	14-13	-0.06
178.	Florida Gulf Coast	16-15	-0.07
179.	Louisiana Tech	12-18	-0.07
180.	St. Thomas (MN)	17-14	-0.08
181.	UTEP	12-18	-0.08
182.	Montana	16-14	-0.09
183.	Bryant	15-13	-0.09
184.	California Baptist	15-16	-0.11
185.	Longwood	18-12	-0.11
186.	Queens (NC)	15-15	-0.11
187.	South Florida	14-18	-0.11
188.	Air Force	14-18	-0.12
189.	North Carolina Central	14-12	-0.12
190.	North Alabama	15-14	-0.13
191.	Maryland-Eastern Shore	14-13	-0.13
192.	St. Bonaventure	14-18	-0.13
193.	Long Beach State	15-16	-0.14
194.	South Carolina	11-21	-0.14
195.	Florida International	12-18	-0.15
196.	Delaware	16-16	-0.15
197.	Weber State	16-15	-0.16
198.	DePaul	10-23	-0.16
199.	La Salle	15-19	-0.16
200.	Pacific	14-17	-0.17
201.	Buffalo	13-17	-0.17
202.	Portland	12-19	-0.19
203.	Navy	17-13	-0.19
204.	Georgia Southern	14-16	-0.19
205.	Notre Dame	11-21	-0.20
206.	Harvard	12-14	-0.20
207.	Alcorn State	18-14	-0.21
208.	Appalachian State	13-16	-0.21
209.	Texas State	14-18	-0.22
210.	Drexel	16-15	-0.23
211.	Fresno State	10-20	-0.23
212.	Rider	15-14	-0.26
213.	Siena	17-15	-0.26
214.	North Dakota State	14-17	-0.27
215.	Northern Iowa	13-18	-0.27
216.	UMBC	17-14	-0.29
217.	Chattanooga	15-17	-0.31
218.	SMU	10-22	-0.33
219.	Wright State	16-15	-0.33
220.	Bellarmine	12-18	-0.33
221.	IPFW	15-15	-0.34
222.	Minnesota	9-22	-0.34
223.	Florida State	9-23	-0.35
224.	Southern Illinois-Edwardsville	16-14	-0.35
225.	North Florida	12-17	-0.36
226.	Wyoming	8-22	-0.36
227.	Western Illinois	13-14	-0.37
228.	Niagara	15-15	-0.37
229.	Western Carolina	15-16	-0.37
230.	Utah Tech	11-19	-0.38
231.	Southeastern Louisiana	15-14	-0.39
232.	Wofford	14-16	-0.39
233.	South Carolina Upstate	14-16	-0.40
234.	Texas-Rio Grande Valley	11-17	-0.41
235.	Oregon State	10-21	-0.42
236.	Southeast Missouri State	17-17	-0.42
237.	Jacksonville	10-16	-0.43
238.	New Hampshire	13-15	-0.44
239.	Lehigh	14-14	-0.44
240.	Abilene Christian	9-17	-0.45
241.	UT-Martin	15-14	-0.50
242.	Gardner-Webb	13-16	-0.50
243.	Winthrop	13-17	-0.50
244.	New Mexico State	6-15	-0.50
245.	American	17-15	-0.51
246.	Fairleigh Dickinson	19-16	-0.52
247.	Campbell	14-18	-0.54
248.	San Diego	9-20	-0.57
249.	Detroit	13-19	-0.57
250.	Loyola (IL)	10-21	-0.60
251.	Army	15-16	-0.60
252.	Sacramento State	12-18	-0.61
253.	Texas-Arlington	8-21	-0.61
254.	Tennessee State	14-14	-0.61
255.	Oakland	12-19	-0.61
256.	Merrimack	16-16	-0.62
257.	Rhode Island	9-22	-0.62
258.	Robert Morris	14-17	-0.62
259.	Northern Colorado	12-19	-0.63
260.	Jacksonville State	10-18	-0.63
261.	Nicholls State	12-15	-0.64
262.	Maine	11-17	-0.65
263.	Northern Illinois	12-18	-0.65
264.	Boston University	14-17	-0.65
265.	Morgan State	11-16	-0.66
266.	UTSA	8-22	-0.66
267.	Tennessee Tech	13-17	-0.67
268.	Pepperdine	7-22	-0.67
269.	Fairfield	12-18	-0.67
270.	High Point	12-17	-0.68
271.	Mercer	12-19	-0.70
272.	Southern Indiana	13-17	-0.71
273.	Georgetown	7-25	-0.71
274.	St. Peter's	13-18	-0.71
275.	Illinois State	11-21	-0.72
276.	Denver	13-17	-0.73
277.	Binghamton	11-18	-0.74
278.	Wagner	13-13	-0.74
279.	North Dakota	11-20	-0.75
280.	UIC	11-20	-0.75
281.	William & Mary	11-20	-0.75
282.	South Dakota	10-19	-0.76
283.	Marist	13-20	-0.76
284.	Mount St. Mary's	12-20	-0.77
285.	Portland State	10-19	-0.79
286.	Manhattan	11-18	-0.79
287.	Dartmouth	8-18	-0.80
288.	UMKC	10-20	-0.83
289.	Southern	13-17	-0.83
290.	Valparaiso	10-21	-0.83
291.	Northern Arizona	10-23	-0.84
292.	North Carolina A&T	10-19	-0.84
293.	Jackson State	14-19	-0.85
294.	Louisiana-Monroe	8-21	-0.85
295.	Stonehill	13-17	-0.85
296.	Northeastern	10-20	-0.86
297.	Coastal Carolina	8-20	-0.86
298.	Arkansas State	10-20	-0.86
299.	Canisius	9-20	-0.90
300.	Sacred Heart	15-17	-0.90
301.	ETSU	10-20	-0.92
302.	Texas Southern	12-21	-0.93
303.	Georgia State	7-21	-0.95
304.	UC-San Diego	8-20	-0.95
305.	Lafayette	11-23	-0.96
306.	Miami (OH)	9-20	-0.97
307.	Loyola (MD)	11-20	-0.99
308.	Alabama A&M	12-18	-1.00
309.	Texas A&M-Commerce	12-20	-1.00
310.	Prairie View	11-19	-1.01
311.	Bowling Green State	9-20	-1.02
312.	Coppin State	9-23	-1.02
313.	Cal State Bakersfield	9-22	-1.02
314.	Central Arkansas	8-22	-1.02
315.	Nebraska-Omaha	8-23	-1.03
316.	Stony Brook	9-22	-1.04
317.	Idaho State	9-21	-1.05
318.	St. Francis (NY)	12-16	-1.07
319.	Bucknell	11-20	-1.07
320.	Saint Francis (PA)	11-18	-1.11
321.	Louisville	4-28	-1.12
322.	New Orleans	10-20	-1.16
323.	Charleston Southern	8-21	-1.16
324.	McNeese State	10-23	-1.16
325.	Citadel	9-22	-1.18
326.	Central Michigan	8-21	-1.18
327.	Austin Peay	6-22	-1.18
328.	Tulsa	5-25	-1.20
329.	Incarnate Word	9-19	-1.21
330.	Eastern Michigan	7-23	-1.22
331.	Bethune-Cookman	10-20	-1.28
332.	Monmouth	7-26	-1.29
333.	Chicago State	7-20	-1.29
334.	Idaho	8-22	-1.30
335.	Arkansas-Little Rock	8-21	-1.30
336.	Hampton	7-24	-1.30
337.	Lindenwood	8-21	-1.32
338.	Holy Cross	8-22	-1.32
339.	Cal Poly	6-25	-1.34
340.	Columbia	5-22	-1.36
341.	Central Connecticut	10-22	-1.38
342.	University of California	3-29	-1.39
343.	Eastern Illinois	7-22	-1.45
344.	NJIT	6-23	-1.46
345.	Evansville	5-27	-1.47
346.	Albany (NY)	6-23	-1.48
347.	Houston Baptist	7-22	-1.50
348.	Elon	6-24	-1.50
349.	Western Michigan	5-23	-1.52
350.	Cal State Northridge	5-25	-1.55
351.	Delaware State	5-23	-1.60
352.	Arkansas-Pine Bluff	6-21	-1.61
353.	Lamar	6-22	-1.61
354.	South Carolina State	4-26	-1.64
355.	Alabama State	7-23	-1.64
356.	Virginia Military Institute	4-25	-1.73
357.	Florida A&M	5-22	-1.77
358.	Mississippi Valley State	5-27	-1.88
359.	Green Bay	3-29	-2.04
360.	Presbyterian	3-27	-2.11
361.	IUPUI	3-27	-2.16
362.	Hartford	2-23	-2.20
363.	LIU-Brooklyn	1-26	-2.55

​