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Articles

   What is the Bayesian Resume Rating?

   Predictive and Earned Rank Systems

   The Problem with RPI, Elo, and the Colley Matrix

   NFL Win/Loss Record History

   Strength of Schedule

   March Madness Bracket Scoring

   March Madness Seed History

   The Hot Hand "Fallacy"

   Mathematical Explanation of the Bayesian Resume Rating

   The Relationship Between Bayes' Theorem and P-Values

   A Typical March Madness Bracket
​

2023 NCAA Basketball Bayesian Resume Ratings

Updated January 30th
​​

Rank	Team	Record against D-I teams	BRR
1.	Purdue	21-1	2.42
2.	Houston	20-2	2.09
3.	Alabama	18-3	2.08
4.	Kansas	17-4	1.98
5.	Florida Atlantic	19-1	1.96
6.	Kansas State	18-3	1.92
7.	Tennessee	18-3	1.90
8.	Arizona	19-3	1.88
9.	Gonzaga	17-4	1.81
10.	Texas	17-4	1.79
11.	Virginia	16-3	1.78
12.	UCLA	17-4	1.70
13.	Baylor	16-5	1.70
14.	College of Charleston	20-2	1.70
15.	Saint Mary's (CA)	18-4	1.69
16.	New Mexico	18-3	1.66
17.	San Diego State	16-4	1.66
18.	Xavier	17-5	1.55
19.	Marquette	17-5	1.55
20.	Iowa State	15-5	1.55
21.	North Carolina State	17-5	1.46
22.	Auburn	16-5	1.45
23.	Texas Christian	16-5	1.45
24.	Missouri	16-5	1.44
25.	Clemson	18-4	1.40
26.	UConn	16-6	1.39
27.	Memphis	17-5	1.38
28.	UNC	15-6	1.37
29.	Providence	17-5	1.37
30.	Duke	15-6	1.36
31.	Miami (FL)	16-5	1.36
32.	Boise State	16-5	1.34
33.	Nevada	15-6	1.34
34.	Utah State	16-5	1.34
35.	Indiana	15-6	1.29
36.	Illinois	15-6	1.29
37.	North Texas	16-5	1.27
38.	Northwestern	15-5	1.26
39.	USC	15-6	1.25
40.	Arkansas	14-7	1.23
41.	Oral Roberts	15-4	1.22
42.	Michigan State	14-8	1.21
43.	Kent State	15-4	1.13
44.	Maryland	14-7	1.12
45.	Kentucky	14-7	1.12
46.	West Virginia	13-8	1.11
47.	Pitt	15-7	1.08
48.	Texas A&M	15-6	1.08
49.	Rutgers	14-7	1.08
50.	Creighton	13-8	1.07
51.	Penn State	14-7	1.06
52.	Southern Miss	16-4	1.06
53.	Saint Louis	14-6	1.04
54.	Liberty	15-5	1.04
55.	VCU	16-6	1.01
56.	Wake Forest	14-8	0.99
57.	Santa Clara	15-7	0.99
58.	Wisconsin	12-8	0.98
59.	Fordham	17-4	0.98
60.	Virginia Tech	13-8	0.97
61.	Louisiana-Lafayette	15-4	0.97
62.	Arizona State	15-7	0.96
63.	Oklahoma	12-9	0.93
64.	Sam Houston State	12-5	0.93
65.	Mississippi State	13-8	0.92
66.	Iowa	13-8	0.91
67.	UNLV	13-7	0.91
68.	Loyola Marymount	15-7	0.91
69.	UCSB	15-3	0.90
70.	Oklahoma State	12-9	0.88
71.	Marshall	17-5	0.86
72.	UCF	13-8	0.85
73.	Drake	16-6	0.84
74.	Oregon	13-9	0.84
75.	Florida	12-9	0.83
76.	Seton Hall	12-9	0.83
77.	Utah Valley	14-6	0.80
78.	Utah	15-8	0.79
79.	St. John's (NY)	14-8	0.77
80.	Seattle	14-6	0.75
81.	Southern Illinois	16-6	0.75
82.	North Carolina-Wilmington	15-6	0.72
83.	Georgia	14-7	0.72
84.	Cincinnati	13-8	0.71
85.	Alabama-Birmingham	14-7	0.70
86.	Hofstra	14-8	0.70
87.	Iona	14-7	0.69
88.	Kennesaw State	14-6	0.67
89.	Washington	13-10	0.66
90.	Temple	14-9	0.66
91.	Cornell	13-5	0.65
92.	Belmont	15-7	0.63
93.	Tulane	13-7	0.63
94.	LSU	12-9	0.63
95.	Dayton	14-8	0.63
96.	Toledo	14-6	0.62
97.	Syracuse	13-9	0.61
98.	San Jose State	12-9	0.59
99.	Hawaii	15-6	0.59
100.	Michigan	11-10	0.59
101.	Furman	14-6	0.58
102.	Rice	12-6	0.58
103.	Bradley	14-8	0.56
104.	Duquesne	14-8	0.56
105.	Vanderbilt	10-11	0.54
106.	Akron	13-6	0.54
107.	Ohio State	11-10	0.53
108.	UMass	13-8	0.53
109.	Southern Utah	11-7	0.51
110.	Quinnipiac	14-6	0.50
111.	San Francisco	14-9	0.50
112.	UC-Riverside	14-7	0.50
113.	Colorado	12-11	0.48
114.	Towson	16-7	0.48
115.	Nebraska	10-12	0.47
116.	BYU	12-10	0.46
117.	Stephen F. Austin	12-7	0.46
118.	Yale	12-6	0.46
119.	Grand Canyon	12-8	0.45
120.	North Carolina-Asheville	15-6	0.44
121.	Eastern Washington	15-7	0.43
122.	UC-Irvine	12-7	0.42
123.	Texas Tech	11-10	0.41
124.	Colgate	15-7	0.40
125.	Middle Tennessee	11-9	0.40
126.	Butler	11-12	0.40
127.	Youngstown State	15-6	0.38
128.	Charlotte	13-8	0.38
129.	Princeton	12-6	0.37
130.	Siena	15-7	0.36
131.	George Mason	12-10	0.35
132.	Milwaukee	12-7	0.33
133.	Florida Gulf Coast	13-9	0.32
134.	Ole Miss	9-12	0.32
135.	Washington State	10-13	0.31
136.	Villanova	10-11	0.31
137.	Ball State	12-7	0.30
138.	Montana State	13-8	0.29
139.	Old Dominion	12-9	0.27
140.	UMass-Lowell	15-6	0.27
141.	James Madison	12-8	0.24
142.	North Carolina-Greensboro	12-9	0.24
143.	Wichita State	11-10	0.21
144.	Northwestern State	13-8	0.21
145.	Indiana State	13-9	0.21
146.	Eastern Kentucky	11-9	0.20
147.	Richmond	11-11	0.18
148.	Colorado State	9-12	0.15
149.	Norfolk State	10-7	0.15
150.	Bryant	11-8	0.15
151.	Northern Kentucky	12-9	0.15
152.	Air Force	12-10	0.12
153.	Vermont	11-10	0.12
154.	Cleveland State	13-8	0.12
155.	St. Bonaventure	11-11	0.10
156.	Murray State	11-10	0.10
157.	Queens (NC)	12-8	0.10
158.	DePaul	9-13	0.09
159.	Tarleton State	9-10	0.09
160.	Missouri State	10-11	0.09
161.	California Baptist	12-9	0.08
162.	Boston College	10-12	0.08
163.	South Dakota State	10-11	0.07
164.	Western Illinois	11-8	0.07
165.	Maryland-Eastern Shore	9-8	0.07
166.	Harvard	10-9	0.06
167.	American	14-7	0.06
168.	George Washington	10-10	0.06
169.	Notre Dame	10-12	0.05
170.	Jacksonville	9-9	0.04
171.	Davidson	9-11	0.04
172.	Northern Iowa	11-10	0.03
173.	UTEP	9-10	0.02
174.	Grambling	11-7	0.02
175.	IPFW	12-9	0.00
176.	UC-Davis	11-9	0.00
177.	Samford	11-8	-0.01
178.	Lehigh	11-8	-0.02
179.	Longwood	13-8	-0.03
180.	Long Beach State	10-10	-0.03
181.	Appalachian State	10-10	-0.03
182.	Florida International	9-11	-0.03
183.	Louisiana Tech	9-10	-0.03
184.	Radford	12-9	-0.03
185.	UMBC	13-9	-0.04
186.	Stetson	9-10	-0.06
187.	St. Joseph's	10-11	-0.06
188.	Georgia Tech	7-13	-0.06
189.	Troy	10-10	-0.07
190.	Ohio	10-10	-0.07
191.	Portland	9-13	-0.07
192.	Delaware	11-11	-0.08
193.	Western Kentucky	9-11	-0.10
194.	St. Thomas (MN)	12-10	-0.11
195.	Penn	10-11	-0.11
196.	Southern Illinois-Edwardsville	11-9	-0.11
197.	Rider	10-9	-0.11
198.	Stanford	9-12	-0.12
199.	Brown	11-10	-0.13
200.	East Carolina	11-11	-0.14
201.	Buffalo	8-11	-0.14
202.	Sacramento State	10-10	-0.15
203.	Cal State Fullerton	10-11	-0.15
204.	Morehead State	10-9	-0.18
205.	South Florida	9-13	-0.19
206.	Howard	10-10	-0.19
207.	Southeastern Louisiana	10-9	-0.19
208.	UT-Martin	11-8	-0.20
209.	Wofford	10-10	-0.20
210.	Pacific	10-11	-0.20
211.	SMU	8-14	-0.21
212.	Georgia Southern	9-11	-0.21
213.	Minnesota	7-13	-0.23
214.	South Carolina	8-13	-0.23
215.	Texas State	9-11	-0.24
216.	Florida State	7-15	-0.24
217.	Rhode Island	8-13	-0.25
218.	Niagara	10-9	-0.26
219.	Oregon State	8-13	-0.26
220.	Lipscomb	10-10	-0.26
221.	Wright State	11-10	-0.26
222.	North Alabama	10-10	-0.28
223.	Chattanooga	9-11	-0.29
224.	Fresno State	6-13	-0.30
225.	Weber State	9-11	-0.30
226.	Drexel	11-10	-0.33
227.	Southern Indiana	10-10	-0.33
228.	Southeast Missouri State	10-11	-0.34
229.	Texas-Rio Grande Valley	8-11	-0.35
230.	Southern	9-10	-0.35
231.	Montana	9-12	-0.37
232.	South Dakota	8-11	-0.37
233.	La Salle	8-13	-0.39
234.	Fairfield	9-11	-0.39
235.	San Diego	8-13	-0.40
236.	UMKC	9-12	-0.40
237.	Texas A&M-Corpus Christi	9-9	-0.41
238.	Coastal Carolina	7-12	-0.42
239.	Navy	10-11	-0.43
240.	Gardner-Webb	9-11	-0.44
241.	Illinois State	9-14	-0.45
242.	Morgan State	7-10	-0.46
243.	Abilene Christian	7-11	-0.46
244.	Alcorn State	8-11	-0.46
245.	South Alabama	7-13	-0.46
246.	New Hampshire	8-10	-0.50
247.	Louisiana-Monroe	7-13	-0.50
248.	Wagner	9-8	-0.50
249.	Mercer	9-12	-0.51
250.	Loyola (IL)	7-13	-0.51
251.	William & Mary	7-14	-0.51
252.	Utah Tech	7-12	-0.51
253.	Bellarmine	7-13	-0.51
254.	Wyoming	5-14	-0.52
255.	Army	10-11	-0.52
256.	North Carolina Central	6-10	-0.53
257.	North Carolina A&T	8-13	-0.53
258.	Denver	10-12	-0.54
259.	Western Carolina	9-11	-0.54
260.	Fairleigh Dickinson	12-10	-0.54
261.	Georgetown	6-16	-0.55
262.	Bowling Green State	8-11	-0.56
263.	Valparaiso	9-13	-0.56
264.	Oakland	8-14	-0.57
265.	Portland State	7-13	-0.57
266.	Northern Illinois	7-12	-0.60
267.	Georgia State	6-13	-0.62
268.	Northeastern	8-13	-0.64
269.	Winthrop	8-13	-0.64
270.	Robert Morris	9-12	-0.65
271.	Nicholls State	6-11	-0.65
272.	UIC	8-14	-0.65
273.	Boston University	9-13	-0.66
274.	Northern Colorado	7-13	-0.67
275.	High Point	8-12	-0.68
276.	Pepperdine	5-16	-0.68
277.	South Carolina Upstate	7-12	-0.69
278.	Campbell	7-13	-0.69
279.	North Dakota State	6-13	-0.70
280.	Maine	7-12	-0.72
281.	St. Peter's	8-12	-0.72
282.	Binghamton	7-12	-0.73
283.	North Florida	6-14	-0.74
284.	New Mexico State	4-14	-0.75
285.	Citadel	8-13	-0.75
286.	Nebraska-Omaha	6-16	-0.77
287.	Jacksonville State	7-13	-0.78
288.	Dartmouth	6-13	-0.79
289.	Detroit	7-15	-0.81
290.	UC-San Diego	6-14	-0.81
291.	Stonehill	9-14	-0.83
292.	Texas A&M-Commerce	9-13	-0.83
293.	Arkansas-Pine Bluff	6-12	-0.86
294.	Tulsa	5-15	-0.88
295.	Tennessee Tech	7-13	-0.89
296.	UTSA	5-16	-0.90
297.	Lafayette	7-16	-0.90
298.	Arkansas State	6-14	-0.90
299.	Charleston Southern	6-13	-0.90
300.	Stony Brook	6-14	-0.91
301.	Texas-Arlington	4-15	-0.91
302.	Marist	7-13	-0.91
303.	Sacred Heart	10-13	-0.95
304.	Tennessee State	8-11	-0.95
305.	Central Arkansas	6-16	-0.96
306.	Incarnate Word	7-12	-0.96
307.	Coppin State	6-17	-0.97
308.	St. Francis (NY)	9-11	-0.98
309.	Idaho State	6-14	-0.98
310.	Central Michigan	6-13	-1.00
311.	Manhattan	6-13	-1.00
312.	Prairie View	6-14	-1.01
313.	Texas Southern	5-14	-1.02
314.	Austin Peay	5-15	-1.03
315.	ETSU	6-15	-1.08
316.	Northern Arizona	4-16	-1.08
317.	Canisius	4-15	-1.08
318.	Cal Poly	5-15	-1.09
319.	University of California	3-18	-1.09
320.	Jackson State	6-15	-1.11
321.	Saint Francis (PA)	6-13	-1.11
322.	Mount St. Mary's	6-15	-1.12
323.	NJIT	5-14	-1.14
324.	Loyola (MD)	6-15	-1.15
325.	Cal State Bakersfield	4-15	-1.16
326.	North Dakota	5-16	-1.17
327.	Idaho	6-15	-1.18
328.	Miami (OH)	4-14	-1.20
329.	Bucknell	7-15	-1.22
330.	Alabama A&M	5-13	-1.26
331.	Chicago State	4-17	-1.26
332.	Merrimack	5-16	-1.29
333.	Columbia	4-16	-1.30
334.	Holy Cross	5-16	-1.30
335.	Hampton	4-17	-1.31
336.	Evansville	4-19	-1.31
337.	Alabama State	5-15	-1.31
338.	Eastern Michigan	4-16	-1.32
339.	Eastern Illinois	5-16	-1.33
340.	Western Michigan	3-15	-1.33
341.	McNeese State	4-17	-1.35
342.	New Orleans	4-14	-1.38
343.	Houston Baptist	4-15	-1.40
344.	Albany (NY)	4-17	-1.41
345.	Central Connecticut	7-18	-1.42
346.	Bethune-Cookman	5-14	-1.42
347.	Louisville	2-19	-1.42
348.	Arkansas-Little Rock	5-16	-1.45
349.	Monmouth	2-20	-1.55
350.	Lindenwood	4-16	-1.55
351.	Delaware State	2-15	-1.60
352.	Lamar	3-16	-1.68
353.	Cal State Northridge	2-18	-1.73
354.	Virginia Military Institute	2-18	-1.74
355.	South Carolina State	2-19	-1.74
356.	Presbyterian	3-18	-1.84
357.	Hartford	2-17	-1.91
358.	Green Bay	2-21	-1.91
359.	Mississippi Valley State	2-21	-1.98
360.	Elon	1-19	-2.00
361.	Florida A&M	1-16	-2.07
362.	IUPUI	1-20	-2.26
363.	LIU-Brooklyn	1-20	-2.33

​