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Articles


   What is the Bayesian Resume Rating?

   Predictive and Earned Rank Systems

   The Problem with RPI, Elo, and the Colley Matrix

   NFL Win/Loss Record History

   Strength of Schedule

   March Madness Bracket Scoring

   March Madness Seed History

   The Hot Hand "Fallacy"

   Mathematical Explanation of the Bayesian Resume Rating

   The Relationship Between Bayes' Theorem and P-Values

   A Typical March Madness Bracket
​

2021 NCAA Basketball Bayesian Resume Ratings

Championship: Baylor defeated Gonzaga​​​
Rank Team Record against D-I teams BRR
1. Gonzaga 30-1 3.02
2. Baylor 28-2 2.82
3. Houston 27-4 2.10
4. Michigan 23-5 1.99
5. Alabama 26-7 1.89
6. Arkansas 25-7 1.86
7. Illinois 24-7 1.84
8. USC 25-8 1.83
9. San Diego State 22-5 1.72
10. Oklahoma State 21-9 1.71
11. Loyola (IL) 24-5 1.63
12. BYU 19-7 1.63
13. Kansas 20-9 1.61
14. Oregon 21-7 1.60
15. Texas 19-8 1.60
16. UCLA 22-10 1.55
17. West Virginia 19-10 1.51
18. Winthrop 23-2 1.50
19. Iowa 22-9 1.47
20. Colorado 23-9 1.46
21. Villanova 18-7 1.45
22. Colgate 14-2 1.44
23. Drake 24-5 1.44
24. Ohio State 21-10 1.44
25. Florida State 18-7 1.38
26. Creighton 22-9 1.35
27. LSU 19-10 1.34
28. Virginia 18-7 1.30
29. Wichita State 14-6 1.29
30. St. Bonaventure 16-5 1.29
31. Memphis 20-8 1.29
32. VCU 19-7 1.26
33. Belmont 25-4 1.25
34. Texas Tech 18-11 1.25
35. Clemson 16-8 1.24
36. Western Kentucky 21-8 1.21
37. Louisiana Tech 23-8 1.21
38. Tennessee 18-9 1.21
39. Missouri 16-10 1.20
40. Navy 15-3 1.18
41. Purdue 18-10 1.16
42. Arizona 17-9 1.15
43. Oklahoma 16-11 1.12
44. UCSB 18-5 1.11
45. Colorado State 19-8 1.10
46. Oregon State 19-13 1.10
47. Syracuse 18-10 1.09
48. Georgia Tech 17-9 1.07
49. UConn 15-8 1.05
50. UNC 18-11 1.01
51. Utah State 19-9 1.01
52. Saint Mary's (CA) 14-10 1.00
53. Wisconsin 18-13 1.00
54. Rutgers 16-12 0.99
55. Virginia Tech 15-7 0.99
56. Boise State 18-9 0.98
57. Louisville 13-7 0.98
58. Abilene Christian 19-5 0.93
59. Florida 15-10 0.93
60. Alabama-Birmingham 20-7 0.91
61. Maryland 16-14 0.88
62. North Texas 17-10 0.87
63. SMU 11-6 0.86
64. Morehead State 21-8 0.86
65. North Carolina-Greensboro 21-9 0.84
66. Xavier 13-8 0.84
67. Marshall 15-7 0.82
68. Ohio 16-8 0.79
69. Georgia State 14-6 0.78
70. Saint Louis 14-7 0.76
71. Michigan State 15-13 0.76
72. St. John's (NY) 16-11 0.73
73. Toledo 21-9 0.72
74. Missouri State 15-7 0.72
75. Wright State 18-6 0.72
76. Georgetown 13-13 0.70
77. Loyola Marymount 13-9 0.70
78. Southern Utah 14-4 0.70
79. Ole Miss 16-12 0.70
80. Cleveland State 19-8 0.69
81. Liberty 18-6 0.69
82. Mississippi State 18-15 0.67
83. Stanford 14-13 0.67
84. Richmond 13-9 0.63
85. Seton Hall 14-13 0.63
86. Old Dominion 14-8 0.62
87. Eastern Kentucky 20-7 0.62
88. Auburn 13-14 0.60
89. Texas State 17-6 0.59
90. Georgia 13-12 0.57
91. Nevada 15-10 0.57
92. Prairie View 16-5 0.56
93. Siena 12-5 0.56
94. Minnesota 14-15 0.55
95. Dayton 14-10 0.54
96. Washington State 14-13 0.53
97. Cincinnati 12-11 0.52
98. Duke 12-11 0.52
99. Chattanooga 15-8 0.52
100. Santa Clara 11-8 0.51
101. Pepperdine 12-12 0.51
102. North Carolina State 14-11 0.51
103. Utah 12-13 0.50
104. Providence 13-13 0.49
105. South Dakota State 15-7 0.49
106. Indiana 12-15 0.49
107. Penn State 11-14 0.48
108. Buffalo 15-9 0.48
109. Wofford 13-9 0.48
110. UCF 11-12 0.47
111. Kent State 14-8 0.47
112. Iona 12-6 0.46
113. Davidson 12-9 0.45
114. Marquette 13-14 0.44
115. Furman 13-9 0.44
116. Indiana State 14-10 0.44
117. UMBC 14-6 0.43
118. Texas Southern 16-9 0.42
119. Eastern Washington 15-8 0.41
120. Coastal Carolina 14-8 0.41
121. Texas Christian 12-14 0.41
122. Mercer 15-11 0.41
123. Norfolk State 15-8 0.40
124. UC-Irvine 13-9 0.39
125. UC-Riverside 12-7 0.38
126. Bryant 14-7 0.38
127. Arizona State 11-14 0.36
128. Akron 13-8 0.36
129. Army 11-9 0.35
130. Jacksonville State 16-9 0.35
131. Weber State 13-6 0.35
132. Pacific 8-9 0.35
133. Stephen F. Austin 13-5 0.34
134. Nicholls State 17-7 0.34
135. George Mason 12-9 0.33
136. Louisiana-Lafayette 15-9 0.32
137. Wagner 13-7 0.31
138. James Madison 10-7 0.31
139. Sam Houston State 15-9 0.29
140. Oral Roberts 15-11 0.28
141. Hartford 15-9 0.26
142. Drexel 12-8 0.24
143. Monmouth 12-8 0.24
144. Wyoming 14-11 0.23
145. Vermont 10-5 0.22
146. Kentucky 9-16 0.20
147. Northeastern 10-9 0.19
148. Morgan State 12-7 0.19
149. Hofstra 13-10 0.19
150. Butler 10-15 0.17
151. ETSU 11-12 0.16
152. Tulsa 9-12 0.15
153. South Alabama 13-11 0.14
154. Grand Canyon 10-7 0.12
155. Pitt 10-12 0.11
156. UMass 8-7 0.10
157. Appalachian State 13-12 0.08
158. Duquesne 9-9 0.07
159. UTSA 11-11 0.06
160. Notre Dame 10-15 0.04
161. Canisius 7-6 0.03
162. San Francisco 11-14 0.03
163. Northwestern 8-15 0.03
164. Jackson State 12-6 0.03
165. St. Peter's 14-11 0.02
166. Mount St. Mary's 12-11 0.00
167. Tulane 10-13 -0.01
168. Marist 12-9 -0.01
169. Bowling Green State 13-12 -0.01
170. Lafayette 9-6 -0.02
171. Texas A&M 7-10 -0.03
172. Rice 12-13 -0.03
173. South Florida 8-13 -0.04
174. Northern Kentucky 14-11 -0.04
175. UC-Davis 8-7 -0.05
176. Campbell 15-10 -0.08
177. Fresno State 10-12 -0.09
178. North Dakota State 15-12 -0.09
179. Detroit 12-10 -0.10
180. Virginia Military Institute 10-12 -0.10
181. Kansas State 9-19 -0.11
182. Miami (FL) 10-17 -0.11
183. East Carolina 7-11 -0.11
184. Cal State Bakersfield 11-11 -0.11
185. UTEP 9-12 -0.11
186. Elon 9-9 -0.12
187. American 4-6 -0.12
188. Rhode Island 10-15 -0.12
189. Vanderbilt 9-16 -0.16
190. Citadel 9-12 -0.17
191. Miami (OH) 11-11 -0.18
192. South Dakota 13-11 -0.20
193. Florida Gulf Coast 8-6 -0.21
194. Sacred Heart 9-9 -0.22
195. Howard 1-2 -0.23
196. South Carolina 6-15 -0.23
197. Merrimack 9-9 -0.23
198. LIU-Brooklyn 9-9 -0.24
199. Hawaii 9-10 -0.24
200. Southern Illinois 11-14 -0.25
201. Boston University 7-11 -0.26
202. Ball State 10-13 -0.26
203. UMass-Lowell 11-12 -0.27
204. New Hampshire 9-9 -0.27
205. University of California 8-20 -0.28
206. UNLV 10-15 -0.29
207. Utah Valley 7-9 -0.30
208. Niagara 9-11 -0.30
209. Bradley 10-16 -0.31
210. Bucknell 5-7 -0.31
211. St. Francis (NY) 9-10 -0.31
212. Montana State 11-10 -0.31
213. Radford 13-12 -0.31
214. Temple 5-11 -0.33
215. Loyola (MD) 6-11 -0.34
216. North Alabama 9-9 -0.34
217. Milwaukee 10-12 -0.36
218. Florida Atlantic 9-10 -0.37
219. College of Charleston 7-10 -0.38
220. Coppin State 9-13 -0.39
221. Texas-Arlington 10-13 -0.39
222. Delaware 6-8 -0.40
223. Georgia Southern 9-13 -0.41
224. Albany (NY) 7-9 -0.41
225. Youngstown State 11-12 -0.42
226. North Carolina-Asheville 10-10 -0.42
227. IUPUI 8-10 -0.42
228. Montana 10-13 -0.43
229. Northern Iowa 8-15 -0.43
230. Arkansas-Little Rock 10-15 -0.43
231. Oakland 12-18 -0.43
232. William & Mary 7-10 -0.46
233. New Mexico State 6-7 -0.47
234. DePaul 5-14 -0.48
235. Nebraska 6-20 -0.48
236. Quinnipiac 9-13 -0.48
237. Evansville 9-16 -0.49
238. Western Carolina 9-16 -0.50
239. La Salle 8-16 -0.50
240. Stetson 9-12 -0.50
241. Charlotte 9-15 -0.51
242. Austin Peay 12-13 -0.51
243. Holy Cross 5-11 -0.53
244. Lipscomb 9-12 -0.53
245. Cal State Fullerton 5-8 -0.54
246. Grambling 11-12 -0.55
247. Murray State 11-13 -0.56
248. North Carolina A&T 9-10 -0.57
249. Fairfield 10-17 -0.59
250. Arkansas State 8-13 -0.59
251. Fairleigh Dickinson 9-15 -0.60
252. Washington 5-21 -0.61
253. Troy 8-17 -0.62
254. Cal State Northridge 8-13 -0.63
255. St. Joseph's 5-15 -0.63
256. Stony Brook 8-14 -0.64
257. Seattle 7-10 -0.66
258. Gardner-Webb 11-15 -0.67
259. Jacksonville 9-11 -0.67
260. Northern Colorado 8-11 -0.68
261. Longwood 12-16 -0.69
262. North Carolina-Wilmington 6-10 -0.70
263. Valparaiso 8-18 -0.71
264. California Baptist 6-9 -0.72
265. Idaho State 8-11 -0.73
266. Manhattan 7-13 -0.74
267. Wake Forest 5-16 -0.74
268. San Diego 3-11 -0.74
269. UIC 9-13 -0.74
270. NJIT 7-12 -0.74
271. Southeast Missouri State 11-16 -0.77
272. George Washington 5-12 -0.78
273. Southern 8-11 -0.78
274. Alabama A&M 6-9 -0.82
275. Long Beach State 6-12 -0.82
276. Samford 4-13 -0.84
277. Hampton 11-14 -0.85
278. Boston College 4-16 -0.85
279. Green Bay 8-17 -0.85
280. IPFW 8-15 -0.86
281. UMKC 7-13 -0.87
282. Sacramento State 6-12 -0.88
283. North Dakota 9-16 -0.88
284. Lehigh 4-11 -0.89
285. Florida A&M 8-12 -0.91
286. North Florida 7-14 -0.92
287. Saint Francis (PA) 6-16 -0.92
288. Portland State 6-12 -0.94
289. Rider 6-17 -0.95
290. High Point 9-15 -0.97
291. Texas-Rio Grande Valley 3-8 -0.99
292. Illinois State 6-18 -0.99
293. Northwestern State 10-18 -0.99
294. Maine 2-7 -1.00
295. Portland 3-15 -1.01
296. Lamar 10-18 -1.03
297. Louisiana-Monroe 7-19 -1.03
298. Alcorn State 6-13 -1.04
299. Southern Miss 6-17 -1.05
300. Towson 4-14 -1.06
301. UT-Martin 7-16 -1.06
302. Southern Illinois-Edwardsville 8-17 -1.06
303. Central Connecticut 5-16 -1.07
304. Northern Arizona 6-16 -1.09
305. North Carolina Central 4-9 -1.09
306. New Orleans 9-15 -1.11
307. Eastern Illinois 9-18 -1.11
308. Binghamton 4-14 -1.12
309. Florida International 5-17 -1.19
310. Eastern Michigan 3-12 -1.20
311. Air Force 5-20 -1.20
312. Iowa State 2-22 -1.21
313. Fordham 2-12 -1.24
314. Central Michigan 5-15 -1.26
315. Western Michigan 4-16 -1.26
316. Western Illinois 6-15 -1.33
317. Middle Tennessee 4-18 -1.34
318. South Carolina Upstate 5-17 -1.34
319. Presbyterian 6-15 -1.36
320. Southeastern Louisiana 8-18 -1.37
321. San Jose State 3-16 -1.41
322. New Mexico 3-16 -1.41
323. Robert Morris 3-15 -1.44
324. Central Arkansas 4-19 -1.45
325. Tennessee Tech 5-22 -1.48
326. Incarnate Word 5-14 -1.54
327. Northern Illinois 3-16 -1.55
328. Nebraska-Omaha 5-20 -1.59
329. Houston Baptist 5-19 -1.61
330. Cal Poly 3-20 -1.63
331. Alabama State 4-14 -1.63
332. Kennesaw State 2-17 -1.69
333. Arkansas-Pine Bluff 4-21 -1.76
334. Chicago State 0-9 -1.76
335. Delaware State 1-16 -1.78
336. McNeese State 4-14 -1.79
337. Tennessee State 3-19 -1.80
338. Charleston Southern 2-18 -1.95
339. Mississippi Valley State 2-22 -2.09
340. Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 2-19 -2.11
341. South Carolina State 1-17 -2.21
342. Idaho 1-21 -2.24
343. Denver 1-18 -2.32
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