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Articles

   What is the Bayesian Resume Rating?

   Predictive and Earned Rank Systems

   The Problem with RPI, Elo, and the Colley Matrix

   NFL Win/Loss Record History

   Strength of Schedule

   March Madness Bracket Scoring

   March Madness Seed History

   The Hot Hand "Fallacy"

   Mathematical Explanation of the Bayesian Resume Rating

   The Relationship Between Bayes' Theorem and P-Values

   A Typical March Madness Bracket
​

2021 NCAA Basketball Bayesian Resume Ratings

Published January 24th.
​

Rank	Team	Record against D-I teams	BRR
1.	Gonzaga	14-0	2.36
2.	Baylor	14-0	2.25
3.	Michigan	13-1	2.03
4.	Houston	13-1	1.92
5.	Texas	11-2	1.76
6.	Winthrop	15-0	1.69
7.	Drake	11-0	1.68
8.	Villanova	10-1	1.65
9.	Alabama	13-3	1.64
10.	Boise State	12-1	1.63
11.	Missouri	10-2	1.59
12.	BYU	12-3	1.49
13.	Iowa	12-3	1.47
14.	Florida State	9-2	1.47
15.	Xavier	10-2	1.45
16.	Navy	10-1	1.35
17.	West Virginia	10-4	1.35
18.	UCLA	12-3	1.34
19.	USC	12-3	1.34
20.	Virginia	10-2	1.31
21.	Wisconsin	12-4	1.31
22.	Tennessee	10-3	1.29
23.	Ohio State	12-4	1.29
24.	St. Bonaventure	8-1	1.28
25.	Louisville	10-3	1.27
26.	Minnesota	11-5	1.26
27.	Virginia Tech	11-3	1.24
28.	Clemson	9-4	1.23
29.	Belmont	15-1	1.22
30.	Texas Tech	11-4	1.18
31.	Kansas	9-5	1.18
32.	Arizona	11-3	1.17
33.	Oklahoma State	9-4	1.13
34.	Arkansas	12-4	1.13
35.	Oklahoma	9-4	1.12
36.	Saint Louis	7-1	1.12
37.	San Diego State	9-4	1.12
38.	Western Kentucky	12-4	1.12
39.	Colorado	12-4	1.11
40.	SMU	8-2	1.08
41.	Creighton	11-4	1.07
42.	Illinois	10-5	1.07
43.	LSU	10-4	1.07
44.	Colorado State	10-3	1.06
45.	Oregon	9-3	1.04
46.	Purdue	11-6	1.04
47.	Alabama-Birmingham	11-2	1.02
48.	Siena	7-1	1.01
49.	Toledo	13-4	0.99
50.	Utah State	11-4	0.98
51.	VCU	11-4	0.97
52.	Eastern Kentucky	11-2	0.95
53.	Saint Mary's (CA)	11-5	0.95
54.	Florida	8-4	0.93
55.	Stanford	9-5	0.92
56.	UNC	10-5	0.92
57.	Alabama A&M	4-0	0.89
58.	Syracuse	9-4	0.88
59.	Maryland	8-7	0.88
60.	Richmond	9-4	0.88
61.	UConn	7-3	0.87
62.	Indiana	9-6	0.86
63.	Colgate	5-1	0.83
64.	Texas Christian	9-5	0.81
65.	Pitt	8-3	0.80
66.	Missouri State	7-1	0.78
67.	Wichita State	6-4	0.78
68.	Marshall	9-4	0.76
69.	Seton Hall	9-6	0.75
70.	South Dakota State	9-3	0.73
71.	Texas State	10-3	0.72
72.	Bryant	9-3	0.71
73.	Santa Clara	8-4	0.70
74.	Rutgers	7-6	0.69
75.	Georgia Tech	7-4	0.69
76.	Loyola (IL)	9-3	0.68
77.	Tulsa	7-5	0.65
78.	Louisiana Tech	12-5	0.65
79.	Wofford	7-4	0.63
80.	Wright State	11-4	0.61
81.	East Carolina	6-3	0.59
82.	Michigan State	8-4	0.59
83.	Coastal Carolina	7-3	0.59
84.	Cleveland State	10-5	0.58
85.	Dayton	8-4	0.57
86.	Georgia State	6-4	0.57
87.	North Carolina-Greensboro	10-5	0.57
88.	Monmouth	7-4	0.56
89.	Sam Houston State	8-5	0.56
90.	Louisiana-Lafayette	9-4	0.56
91.	Georgia	8-5	0.55
92.	Northeastern	8-5	0.54
93.	Providence	8-7	0.54
94.	Army	7-4	0.52
95.	Marquette	8-7	0.52
96.	Pacific	4-3	0.51
97.	Auburn	9-7	0.50
98.	Davidson	9-5	0.50
99.	UMBC	10-3	0.50
100.	Abilene Christian	7-3	0.49
101.	Mercer	7-4	0.49
102.	Penn State	5-6	0.48
103.	Mississippi State	9-7	0.46
104.	UMass	5-3	0.46
105.	Memphis	7-5	0.46
106.	Washington State	9-6	0.46
107.	Southern Illinois	6-3	0.45
108.	UCSB	6-3	0.45
109.	St. John's (NY)	9-7	0.44
110.	Oregon State	7-5	0.44
111.	Old Dominion	7-4	0.42
112.	South Florida	6-5	0.42
113.	Akron	6-3	0.42
114.	Ole Miss	8-6	0.41
115.	Bowling Green State	9-5	0.40
116.	Kent State	6-4	0.38
117.	Appalachian State	8-5	0.37
118.	ETSU	7-5	0.37
119.	Loyola Marymount	7-6	0.36
120.	Chattanooga	9-5	0.36
121.	San Francisco	10-8	0.35
122.	Furman	7-5	0.33
123.	St. Peter's	7-6	0.33
124.	Liberty	9-5	0.31
125.	Tulane	6-4	0.29
126.	Montana State	7-3	0.29
127.	North Carolina State	6-5	0.29
128.	Temple	3-4	0.28
129.	Bradley	7-5	0.28
130.	Texas A&M	6-6	0.28
131.	Lafayette	5-2	0.28
132.	Wyoming	9-5	0.27
133.	Nevada	9-6	0.27
134.	Charlotte	7-6	0.26
135.	Morehead State	9-6	0.26
136.	Utah	6-6	0.25
137.	Hofstra	8-6	0.25
138.	LIU-Brooklyn	4-2	0.24
139.	Southern Utah	7-3	0.24
140.	Cal State Bakersfield	8-5	0.22
141.	Stephen F. Austin	6-2	0.22
142.	Rhode Island	7-8	0.22
143.	Miami (FL)	6-7	0.20
144.	Jacksonville State	8-5	0.20
145.	UC-Irvine	5-4	0.20
146.	Northwestern	5-8	0.19
147.	St. Francis (NY)	4-3	0.18
148.	Ohio	7-6	0.18
149.	Morgan State	5-3	0.18
150.	George Mason	7-6	0.18
151.	UCF	3-6	0.16
152.	Arkansas-Little Rock	7-7	0.15
153.	UC-Riverside	7-4	0.15
154.	Canisius	3-3	0.14
155.	Miami (OH)	6-4	0.11
156.	Nicholls State	8-5	0.10
157.	Hartford	9-6	0.09
158.	Vermont	7-3	0.09
159.	Norfolk State	7-5	0.08
160.	Iona	5-3	0.07
161.	Butler	5-7	0.06
162.	South Carolina	3-5	0.06
163.	Indiana State	5-7	0.05
164.	Duke	4-5	0.05
165.	Kentucky	5-9	0.04
166.	Florida Gulf Coast	4-3	0.02
167.	New Hampshire	6-5	0.01
168.	North Alabama	5-3	0.00
169.	Rice	8-6	0.00
170.	Buffalo	5-5	-0.02
171.	North Texas	6-5	-0.03
172.	UIC	8-5	-0.05
173.	Radford	9-6	-0.08
174.	Pepperdine	4-7	-0.09
175.	Prairie View	4-4	-0.09
176.	Grand Canyon	3-3	-0.09
177.	Mount St. Mary's	5-6	-0.10
178.	La Salle	6-8	-0.10
179.	Drexel	7-5	-0.10
180.	American	1-2	-0.11
181.	North Carolina-Wilmington	6-5	-0.11
182.	Citadel	4-4	-0.12
183.	Sacred Heart	5-5	-0.13
184.	Texas-Rio Grande Valley	3-3	-0.13
185.	Weber State	3-4	-0.13
186.	Arizona State	4-7	-0.15
187.	Milwaukee	6-5	-0.16
188.	Austin Peay	6-5	-0.16
189.	University of California	6-10	-0.17
190.	Marist	8-6	-0.17
191.	North Dakota State	9-7	-0.18
192.	Duquesne	4-6	-0.19
193.	Cincinnati	3-7	-0.20
194.	South Dakota	7-6	-0.22
195.	Howard	1-2	-0.22
196.	Stetson	3-5	-0.22
197.	Oral Roberts	6-6	-0.24
198.	Ball State	6-7	-0.24
199.	Georgia Southern	6-7	-0.24
200.	Bucknell	2-4	-0.25
201.	Elon	2-3	-0.25
202.	Sacramento State	4-3	-0.25
203.	Merrimack	3-3	-0.25
204.	Wake Forest	3-6	-0.26
205.	James Madison	3-5	-0.26
206.	Kansas State	5-10	-0.27
207.	Manhattan	5-4	-0.27
208.	DePaul	3-5	-0.28
209.	UC-Davis	1-2	-0.28
210.	North Carolina Central	1-3	-0.29
211.	Georgetown	3-8	-0.29
212.	Virginia Military Institute	5-8	-0.31
213.	South Alabama	5-8	-0.31
214.	Texas-Arlington	5-8	-0.31
215.	Northern Kentucky	7-8	-0.32
216.	UTEP	4-7	-0.32
217.	UNLV	3-6	-0.32
218.	Air Force	4-9	-0.33
219.	Vanderbilt	4-7	-0.37
220.	Southern	3-5	-0.38
221.	Eastern Washington	3-6	-0.38
222.	Notre Dame	3-8	-0.39
223.	IPFW	6-7	-0.39
224.	Western Carolina	5-7	-0.39
225.	Wagner	2-5	-0.39
226.	Evansville	6-8	-0.39
227.	Fresno State	3-6	-0.40
228.	Cal State Northridge	4-6	-0.40
229.	Samford	4-8	-0.41
230.	Saint Francis (PA)	3-8	-0.42
231.	UMass-Lowell	6-8	-0.43
232.	Lehigh	2-5	-0.43
233.	Nebraska	3-8	-0.43
234.	Boston University	2-5	-0.43
235.	Quinnipiac	4-6	-0.44
236.	Towson	3-6	-0.44
237.	Hawaii	2-4	-0.45
238.	NJIT	5-6	-0.46
239.	Long Beach State	3-5	-0.46
240.	Holy Cross	2-5	-0.47
241.	North Carolina-Asheville	8-7	-0.47
242.	Troy	4-9	-0.48
243.	Northern Colorado	6-7	-0.49
244.	New Mexico State	0-1	-0.49
245.	Florida Atlantic	4-7	-0.49
246.	Cal State Fullerton	3-5	-0.50
247.	Southern Illinois-Edwardsville	3-5	-0.50
248.	Stony Brook	5-7	-0.51
249.	Lipscomb	5-8	-0.51
250.	Utah Valley	3-6	-0.51
251.	IUPUI	3-6	-0.51
252.	Niagara	6-8	-0.52
253.	Youngstown State	5-8	-0.53
254.	Florida International	5-8	-0.53
255.	Iowa State	2-7	-0.54
256.	Gardner-Webb	4-9	-0.54
257.	William & Mary	4-7	-0.55
258.	Jacksonville	7-7	-0.55
259.	Idaho State	5-7	-0.56
260.	UTSA	4-8	-0.56
261.	Boston College	3-10	-0.57
262.	College of Charleston	4-8	-0.59
263.	Campbell	6-9	-0.59
264.	Coppin State	5-9	-0.59
265.	Hampton	7-8	-0.61
266.	Albany (NY)	3-6	-0.62
267.	Oakland	6-13	-0.62
268.	Montana	4-8	-0.65
269.	Alcorn State	3-6	-0.66
270.	Florida A&M	2-6	-0.67
271.	Murray State	4-7	-0.70
272.	Jackson State	2-5	-0.70
273.	San Diego	2-6	-0.70
274.	Southern Miss	5-8	-0.70
275.	California Baptist	2-4	-0.71
276.	Texas Southern	2-7	-0.71
277.	Portland	3-9	-0.71
278.	Seattle	3-6	-0.72
279.	Delaware	3-7	-0.73
280.	Northern Iowa	2-10	-0.76
281.	Green Bay	5-11	-0.77
282.	Illinois State	4-9	-0.77
283.	North Florida	5-9	-0.77
284.	Washington	2-11	-0.78
285.	Detroit	4-8	-0.79
286.	Eastern Illinois	5-10	-0.79
287.	Central Connecticut	3-9	-0.81
288.	Grambling	4-8	-0.82
289.	Central Michigan	4-8	-0.84
290.	Incarnate Word	3-6	-0.85
291.	North Dakota	4-12	-0.86
292.	Loyola (MD)	0-3	-0.87
293.	Fordham	1-6	-0.88
294.	Robert Morris	2-7	-0.89
295.	George Washington	3-9	-0.89
296.	Portland State	2-7	-0.90
297.	Maine	2-7	-0.92
298.	Rider	4-11	-0.92
299.	Longwood	5-12	-0.99
300.	Presbyterian	2-7	-0.99
301.	South Carolina Upstate	3-10	-1.00
302.	New Mexico	2-9	-1.02
303.	Valparaiso	2-9	-1.03
304.	Eastern Michigan	1-7	-1.04
305.	North Carolina A&T	4-9	-1.04
306.	Southeast Missouri State	4-9	-1.05
307.	High Point	3-8	-1.08
308.	Northern Arizona	4-11	-1.09
309.	Northern Illinois	2-10	-1.09
310.	Central Arkansas	2-11	-1.12
311.	Middle Tennessee	2-8	-1.14
312.	Fairleigh Dickinson	2-8	-1.15
313.	Southeastern Louisiana	4-11	-1.15
314.	Fairfield	3-12	-1.19
315.	Lamar	3-11	-1.21
316.	New Orleans	3-10	-1.21
317.	UT-Martin	2-9	-1.21
318.	Arkansas-Pine Bluff	3-11	-1.22
319.	Louisiana-Monroe	4-11	-1.23
320.	Nebraska-Omaha	2-12	-1.24
321.	St. Joseph's	1-12	-1.27
322.	Arkansas State	2-8	-1.28
323.	Western Michigan	1-9	-1.34
324.	Alabama State	1-5	-1.35
325.	UMKC	1-9	-1.43
326.	Cal Poly	1-10	-1.44
327.	San Jose State	1-11	-1.44
328.	Tennessee State	2-10	-1.44
329.	Tennessee Tech	2-15	-1.48
330.	Northwestern State	2-14	-1.55
331.	Binghamton	1-12	-1.57
332.	Western Illinois	1-11	-1.61
333.	Houston Baptist	1-12	-1.71
334.	Delaware State	0-9	-1.72
335.	Texas A&M-Corpus Christi	0-9	-1.76
336.	Chicago State	0-9	-1.78
337.	McNeese State	1-8	-1.79
338.	Charleston Southern	0-11	-1.87
339.	Denver	0-11	-1.93
340.	Kennesaw State	0-13	-1.95
341.	Idaho	0-11	-1.98
342.	Mississippi Valley State	0-13	-2.06
343.	South Carolina State	0-13	-2.13

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Reading material for analytics-minded people:
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