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Articles

   What is the Bayesian Resume Rating?

   Predictive and Earned Rank Systems

   The Problem with RPI, Elo, and the Colley Matrix

   NFL Win/Loss Record History

   Strength of Schedule

   March Madness Bracket Scoring

   March Madness Seed History

   The Hot Hand "Fallacy"

   Mathematical Explanation of the Bayesian Resume Rating

   The Relationship Between Bayes' Theorem and P-Values

   A Typical March Madness Bracket
​

2021 NCAA Basketball Bayesian Resume Ratings

Published February 24th.
​​

Rank	Team	Record against D-I teams	BRR
1.	Gonzaga	21-0	2.71
2.	Baylor	18-0	2.48
3.	Michigan	16-1	2.26
4.	Alabama	18-5	1.70
5.	Ohio State	18-5	1.68
6.	Houston	17-3	1.67
7.	Belmont	23-1	1.65
8.	USC	19-4	1.65
9.	West Virginia	16-6	1.64
10.	Drake	21-2	1.63
11.	Villanova	15-3	1.63
12.	Florida State	13-3	1.61
13.	Winthrop	20-1	1.57
14.	BYU	16-5	1.52
15.	Texas	14-6	1.51
16.	Clemson	13-5	1.50
17.	San Diego State	16-4	1.45
18.	Iowa	17-6	1.45
19.	Arkansas	17-5	1.45
20.	Illinois	16-6	1.45
21.	Colgate	11-1	1.42
22.	Boise State	17-4	1.42
23.	Virginia	15-5	1.38
24.	Oklahoma State	15-6	1.36
25.	VCU	17-5	1.36
26.	UCLA	16-5	1.36
27.	Kansas	16-8	1.35
28.	Loyola (IL)	17-4	1.35
29.	Navy	13-2	1.34
30.	Western Kentucky	15-4	1.31
31.	Wichita State	11-4	1.29
32.	Oklahoma	14-6	1.29
33.	Colorado State	13-4	1.28
34.	Creighton	16-5	1.26
35.	St. Bonaventure	11-3	1.24
36.	Tennessee	15-6	1.22
37.	Missouri	14-7	1.20
38.	Xavier	12-4	1.20
39.	Virginia Tech	14-5	1.20
40.	Purdue	15-8	1.19
41.	Louisville	12-5	1.19
42.	Oregon	14-5	1.18
43.	Wisconsin	16-8	1.16
44.	LSU	14-7	1.14
45.	Texas Tech	14-8	1.11
46.	SMU	11-4	1.09
47.	UNC	14-7	1.09
48.	Florida	12-6	1.08
49.	Colorado	17-7	1.08
50.	UCSB	12-3	1.06
51.	Toledo	18-6	1.03
52.	Richmond	12-5	1.03
53.	Louisiana Tech	17-6	1.02
54.	Maryland	13-10	1.01
55.	Rutgers	12-9	0.97
56.	Minnesota	13-10	0.96
57.	Arizona	15-8	0.95
58.	Saint Mary's (CA)	12-7	0.93
59.	Marshall	12-5	0.92
60.	Memphis	12-6	0.90
61.	UConn	11-6	0.89
62.	Wright State	18-5	0.89
63.	Missouri State	13-5	0.87
64.	Alabama-Birmingham	16-5	0.87
65.	Georgia Tech	12-8	0.86
66.	Kent State	13-5	0.84
67.	North Carolina-Greensboro	17-7	0.83
68.	Stanford	14-9	0.82
69.	Syracuse	13-7	0.81
70.	Seton Hall	13-9	0.81
71.	Abilene Christian	13-3	0.80
72.	Ole Miss	13-9	0.76
73.	Indiana	12-10	0.76
74.	Utah State	13-7	0.75
75.	Chattanooga	15-6	0.75
76.	Georgia	13-9	0.74
77.	Saint Louis	11-5	0.73
78.	Michigan State	12-9	0.69
79.	Loyola Marymount	11-7	0.69
80.	Texas State	15-5	0.68
81.	Akron	12-5	0.67
82.	Dayton	12-7	0.66
83.	Siena	9-3	0.65
84.	Cleveland State	16-7	0.64
85.	Sam Houston State	13-6	0.63
86.	Morehead State	16-7	0.63
87.	St. John's (NY)	14-10	0.62
88.	Liberty	15-5	0.61
89.	Texas Christian	11-10	0.60
90.	Old Dominion	11-6	0.60
91.	Southern Utah	9-3	0.60
92.	Duke	10-8	0.59
93.	Washington State	14-10	0.59
94.	Furman	12-7	0.59
95.	Ohio	11-6	0.57
96.	Nevada	13-7	0.57
97.	North Texas	11-6	0.57
98.	UMBC	14-5	0.56
99.	James Madison	10-5	0.55
100.	Georgia State	10-5	0.54
101.	Eastern Kentucky	17-6	0.54
102.	Wofford	12-8	0.53
103.	Indiana State	12-8	0.52
104.	Santa Clara	9-6	0.51
105.	Wagner	10-5	0.49
106.	Davidson	10-6	0.48
107.	Army	9-7	0.46
108.	Mississippi State	12-11	0.44
109.	Stephen F. Austin	10-3	0.44
110.	Bryant	11-5	0.43
111.	Providence	11-11	0.41
112.	Pacific	7-7	0.41
113.	Louisiana-Lafayette	13-7	0.39
114.	South Dakota State	12-6	0.39
115.	Penn State	8-12	0.38
116.	Tulsa	9-9	0.37
117.	Prairie View	9-4	0.37
118.	Auburn	11-13	0.36
119.	Vermont	10-4	0.35
120.	Eastern Washington	11-6	0.34
121.	Monmouth	10-7	0.32
122.	Mercer	11-9	0.30
123.	Pepperdine	8-10	0.30
124.	Weber State	10-5	0.30
125.	UCF	8-11	0.30
126.	Cincinnati	7-8	0.28
127.	UMass	7-5	0.28
128.	Morgan State	9-5	0.28
129.	George Mason	9-8	0.28
130.	Marquette	10-12	0.27
131.	Pitt	9-9	0.27
132.	Coastal Carolina	9-6	0.27
133.	Oregon State	10-11	0.27
134.	North Carolina State	10-9	0.27
135.	Kentucky	8-13	0.27
136.	Northeastern	9-8	0.26
137.	St. Peter's	11-8	0.25
138.	Hofstra	12-9	0.25
139.	Texas A&M	7-7	0.24
140.	Jacksonville State	13-8	0.23
141.	South Alabama	12-8	0.22
142.	Utah	9-10	0.22
143.	ETSU	10-10	0.21
144.	Canisius	6-4	0.21
145.	Georgetown	7-11	0.20
146.	Bowling Green State	12-9	0.20
147.	South Florida	7-8	0.19
148.	Wyoming	12-9	0.19
149.	UC-Irvine	9-8	0.19
150.	Norfolk State	11-7	0.18
151.	Nicholls State	12-6	0.17
152.	East Carolina	7-8	0.17
153.	Iona	8-5	0.17
154.	UC-Riverside	8-5	0.14
155.	Arizona State	8-11	0.13
156.	San Francisco	10-11	0.13
157.	Notre Dame	8-12	0.13
158.	Buffalo	9-7	0.11
159.	Grand Canyon	6-4	0.10
160.	Florida Gulf Coast	7-4	0.08
161.	Duquesne	7-7	0.07
162.	Tulane	9-9	0.07
163.	Rhode Island	10-13	0.06
164.	Northern Kentucky	13-10	0.03
165.	Cal State Bakersfield	10-9	0.01
166.	Merrimack	8-6	0.01
167.	Marist	10-8	-0.02
168.	Detroit	11-9	-0.02
169.	LIU-Brooklyn	9-7	-0.02
170.	Sacred Heart	8-7	-0.02
171.	Hartford	11-8	-0.03
172.	Bucknell	4-4	-0.03
173.	Rice	10-10	-0.07
174.	Drexel	8-7	-0.11
175.	Jackson State	7-5	-0.11
176.	Citadel	8-10	-0.12
177.	Mount St. Mary's	9-10	-0.12
178.	Virginia Military Institute	9-11	-0.12
179.	South Carolina	5-11	-0.12
180.	UTSA	9-9	-0.14
181.	Lafayette	7-5	-0.14
182.	American	2-4	-0.15
183.	Miami (OH)	9-9	-0.16
184.	Fresno State	7-9	-0.16
185.	UNLV	8-11	-0.17
186.	Texas Southern	7-8	-0.17
187.	UC-Davis	4-5	-0.18
188.	Butler	7-13	-0.18
189.	Campbell	13-9	-0.19
190.	Charlotte	9-10	-0.20
191.	UTEP	7-10	-0.20
192.	New Hampshire	9-8	-0.20
193.	Miami (FL)	7-13	-0.21
194.	Howard	1-2	-0.21
195.	Alabama A&M	6-4	-0.21
196.	South Dakota	11-9	-0.22
197.	Montana State	7-7	-0.22
198.	North Dakota State	12-10	-0.23
199.	Northwestern	5-14	-0.23
200.	Austin Peay	12-10	-0.24
201.	Kansas State	7-17	-0.25
202.	Southern Illinois	10-11	-0.25
203.	Murray State	11-10	-0.25
204.	Appalachian State	8-10	-0.26
205.	St. Francis (NY)	8-9	-0.26
206.	Radford	12-11	-0.26
207.	Boston University	5-8	-0.27
208.	North Carolina-Asheville	10-9	-0.28
209.	Delaware	6-7	-0.30
210.	Cal State Fullerton	5-7	-0.30
211.	IUPUI	8-9	-0.30
212.	Niagara	8-10	-0.33
213.	Bradley	9-14	-0.35
214.	Texas-Rio Grande Valley	3-4	-0.35
215.	Hawaii	6-8	-0.35
216.	Youngstown State	10-11	-0.35
217.	Quinnipiac	8-9	-0.35
218.	Temple	4-10	-0.35
219.	Ball State	7-11	-0.35
220.	Vanderbilt	6-12	-0.36
221.	College of Charleston	7-9	-0.36
222.	Georgia Southern	8-11	-0.38
223.	Lipscomb	9-10	-0.39
224.	Arkansas-Little Rock	9-13	-0.39
225.	Texas-Arlington	8-12	-0.41
226.	Oral Roberts	8-10	-0.42
227.	Wake Forest	5-11	-0.43
228.	Albany (NY)	6-8	-0.44
229.	Arkansas State	7-10	-0.44
230.	La Salle	7-14	-0.45
231.	Coppin State	7-12	-0.46
232.	University of California	7-17	-0.46
233.	Elon	5-8	-0.46
234.	UMass-Lowell	8-11	-0.48
235.	North Carolina-Wilmington	6-8	-0.49
236.	Utah Valley	4-7	-0.49
237.	Cal State Northridge	7-9	-0.49
238.	Stetson	7-9	-0.50
239.	DePaul	4-10	-0.51
240.	Oakland	10-17	-0.51
241.	Milwaukee	8-11	-0.51
242.	Evansville	8-14	-0.53
243.	Manhattan	6-9	-0.54
244.	Idaho State	7-7	-0.55
245.	Long Beach State	5-7	-0.55
246.	William & Mary	6-9	-0.55
247.	Grambling	8-10	-0.56
248.	San Diego	3-9	-0.57
249.	Stony Brook	8-13	-0.58
250.	Gardner-Webb	11-14	-0.58
251.	California Baptist	5-7	-0.58
252.	Longwood	11-13	-0.60
253.	Fairleigh Dickinson	8-14	-0.60
254.	North Alabama	6-8	-0.61
255.	Lehigh	4-8	-0.62
256.	Holy Cross	4-11	-0.62
257.	UIC	9-12	-0.63
258.	Washington	5-18	-0.64
259.	Northern Iowa	5-15	-0.65
260.	George Washington	4-9	-0.65
261.	Nebraska	4-16	-0.66
262.	Troy	7-14	-0.66
263.	Southern	6-8	-0.67
264.	Western Carolina	7-15	-0.67
265.	Florida A&M	5-9	-0.68
266.	NJIT	7-11	-0.68
267.	Northern Colorado	6-8	-0.68
268.	North Carolina Central	3-5	-0.69
269.	North Carolina A&T	7-10	-0.70
270.	Sacramento State	5-8	-0.72
271.	Montana	6-12	-0.72
272.	Jacksonville	9-11	-0.72
273.	Samford	4-12	-0.73
274.	Green Bay	8-16	-0.73
275.	Valparaiso	7-16	-0.75
276.	Illinois State	6-15	-0.76
277.	UMKC	7-10	-0.77
278.	Portland State	5-8	-0.79
279.	Florida Atlantic	4-9	-0.79
280.	Saint Francis (PA)	6-15	-0.80
281.	New Mexico State	3-6	-0.81
282.	Loyola (MD)	3-8	-0.81
283.	Alcorn State	5-9	-0.81
284.	Southeast Missouri State	9-15	-0.84
285.	Boston College	3-13	-0.84
286.	Seattle	4-7	-0.86
287.	Fairfield	6-15	-0.86
288.	Southern Miss	6-14	-0.88
289.	IPFW	7-14	-0.88
290.	North Dakota	9-15	-0.88
291.	Louisiana-Monroe	7-16	-0.91
292.	Eastern Illinois	9-16	-0.91
293.	Hampton	9-13	-0.92
294.	North Florida	6-12	-0.95
295.	Towson	4-13	-0.95
296.	Northwestern State	7-14	-0.96
297.	Southeastern Louisiana	7-13	-0.98
298.	Maine	2-7	-0.99
299.	Middle Tennessee	4-13	-1.00
300.	UT-Martin	6-15	-1.01
301.	High Point	8-14	-1.01
302.	Southern Illinois-Edwardsville	7-15	-1.02
303.	Iowa State	2-17	-1.03
304.	Portland	3-14	-1.05
305.	Incarnate Word	5-9	-1.05
306.	Binghamton	4-13	-1.06
307.	Rider	4-13	-1.07
308.	Fordham	2-11	-1.07
309.	Northern Arizona	5-13	-1.12
310.	Florida International	5-15	-1.12
311.	Western Michigan	3-13	-1.13
312.	St. Joseph's	2-14	-1.16
313.	Central Connecticut	4-15	-1.16
314.	New Mexico	3-13	-1.18
315.	Western Illinois	6-12	-1.18
316.	Air Force	4-17	-1.19
317.	Central Michigan	4-12	-1.20
318.	South Carolina Upstate	5-16	-1.24
319.	Presbyterian	6-14	-1.27
320.	Alabama State	4-9	-1.27
321.	Eastern Michigan	1-10	-1.28
322.	San Jose State	3-15	-1.32
323.	Robert Morris	3-14	-1.35
324.	Northern Illinois	2-14	-1.42
325.	New Orleans	4-13	-1.45
326.	Houston Baptist	3-14	-1.45
327.	Lamar	4-17	-1.58
328.	Cal Poly	2-15	-1.63
329.	Arkansas-Pine Bluff	3-18	-1.70
330.	Nebraska-Omaha	3-19	-1.72
331.	Tennessee State	3-17	-1.73
332.	Tennessee Tech	3-22	-1.75
333.	Chicago State	0-9	-1.76
334.	Central Arkansas	2-17	-1.81
335.	Delaware State	0-12	-1.92
336.	McNeese State	2-11	-1.92
337.	Charleston Southern	2-18	-1.94
338.	Kennesaw State	1-16	-1.94
339.	Texas A&M-Corpus Christi	1-16	-1.99
340.	Mississippi Valley State	1-18	-2.11
341.	Denver	1-16	-2.15
342.	South Carolina State	0-15	-2.28
343.	Idaho	0-19	-2.45

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Reading material for analytics-minded people:
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