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Articles

   What is the Bayesian Resume Rating?

   Predictive and Earned Rank Systems

   The Problem with RPI, Elo, and the Colley Matrix

   NFL Win/Loss Record History

   Strength of Schedule

   March Madness Bracket Scoring

   March Madness Seed History

   The Hot Hand "Fallacy"

   Mathematical Explanation of the Bayesian Resume Rating

   The Relationship Between Bayes' Theorem and P-Values

   A Typical March Madness Bracket
​

2022 NCAA Football Bayesian Resume Ratings

Published September 26th.
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Rank	Team	Record against FBS opponents	BRR
1.	Alabama	4-0	0.86
2.	Penn State	4-0	0.85
3.	Southern California	4-0	0.84
4.	Tennessee	4-0	0.83
5.	Ohio State	4-0	0.83
6.	Syracuse	4-0	0.83
7.	Michigan	4-0	0.79
8.	Kansas	3-0	0.71
9.	Georgia	3-0	0.69
10.	Florida State	3-0	0.69
11.	North Carolina State	3-0	0.67
12.	UCLA	3-0	0.66
13.	Kentucky	3-0	0.66
14.	Clemson	3-0	0.65
15.	Washington	3-0	0.65
16.	Mississippi	3-0	0.64
17.	Minnesota	3-0	0.62
18.	Coastal Carolina	3-0	0.61
19.	James Madison	2-0	0.52
20.	Mississippi State	3-1	0.46
21.	Brigham Young	3-1	0.44
22.	Texas Christian	2-0	0.44
23.	Maryland	3-1	0.44
24.	Oklahoma State	2-0	0.42
25.	Liberty	3-1	0.41
26.	Memphis	3-1	0.41
27.	Oklahoma	3-1	0.37
28.	Oregon	2-1	0.32
29.	Wake Forest	2-1	0.30
30.	Louisiana State	2-1	0.29
31.	Texas Tech	2-1	0.28
32.	Indiana	2-1	0.28
33.	Auburn	2-1	0.27
34.	Arkansas	2-1	0.26
35.	Baylor	2-1	0.26
36.	Iowa	2-1	0.26
37.	Cincinnati	2-1	0.26
38.	Kansas State	2-1	0.25
39.	Iowa State	2-1	0.25
40.	Duke	2-1	0.25
41.	Pittsburgh	2-1	0.25
42.	Oregon State	2-1	0.24
43.	Illinois	2-1	0.24
44.	Texas A&M	2-1	0.24
45.	California	2-1	0.24
46.	Middle Tennessee State	2-1	0.21
47.	Nevada-Las Vegas	2-1	0.21
48.	Washington State	2-1	0.20
49.	South Alabama	2-1	0.20
50.	Rutgers	2-1	0.19
51.	Tulane	2-1	0.19
52.	North Carolina	2-1	0.19
53.	Air Force	2-1	0.19
54.	Utah	2-1	0.18
55.	Central Florida	2-1	0.17
56.	Western Kentucky	2-1	0.17
57.	Georgia Southern	2-1	0.15
58.	Louisville	2-2	0.06
59.	Florida	2-2	0.06
60.	Notre Dame	2-2	0.06
61.	Appalachian State	2-2	0.04
62.	Texas	2-2	0.04
63.	Alabama-Birmingham	1-1	0.04
64.	Wyoming	2-2	0.04
65.	Houston	2-2	0.03
66.	Navy	1-1	0.01
67.	Michigan State	2-2	0.01
68.	San Jose State	1-1	-0.01
69.	Vanderbilt	2-2	-0.02
70.	South Carolina	2-2	-0.02
71.	Nevada	2-2	-0.03
72.	Old Dominion	2-2	-0.08
73.	Purdue	1-2	-0.16
74.	Virginia	1-2	-0.17
75.	Bowling Green State	1-2	-0.18
76.	Buffalo	1-2	-0.19
77.	West Virginia	1-2	-0.19
78.	Miami (OH)	1-2	-0.19
79.	East Carolina	1-2	-0.20
80.	Ohio	1-2	-0.20
81.	Louisiana-Monroe	1-2	-0.20
82.	Rice	1-2	-0.20
83.	Southern Methodist	1-2	-0.21
84.	Arizona	1-2	-0.21
85.	Troy	1-2	-0.21
86.	Southern Mississippi	1-2	-0.21
87.	Wisconsin	1-2	-0.21
88.	Utah State	1-2	-0.22
89.	Miami (FL)	1-2	-0.22
90.	Tulsa	1-2	-0.24
91.	Missouri	1-2	-0.24
92.	Toledo	1-2	-0.25
93.	New Mexico	1-2	-0.25
94.	San Diego State	1-2	-0.25
95.	Temple	1-2	-0.25
96.	Texas State	1-2	-0.25
97.	Marshall	1-2	-0.25
98.	Boise State	1-2	-0.25
99.	Texas-San Antonio	1-2	-0.26
100.	Northwestern	1-2	-0.27
101.	Texas-El Paso	2-3	-0.28
102.	Louisiana	1-2	-0.28
103.	Virginia Tech	1-2	-0.29
104.	Eastern Michigan	1-2	-0.31
105.	Stanford	0-2	-0.41
106.	North Texas	1-3	-0.43
107.	Fresno State	0-2	-0.43
108.	Western Michigan	1-3	-0.47
109.	Army	0-2	-0.48
110.	Florida Atlantic	1-3	-0.48
111.	Charlotte	1-3	-0.50
112.	Florida International	0-2	-0.51
113.	Kent State	0-3	-0.61
114.	Central Michigan	0-3	-0.62
115.	Georgia Tech	0-3	-0.62
116.	Akron	0-3	-0.63
117.	Colorado State	0-3	-0.63
118.	Arkansas State	0-3	-0.64
119.	Louisiana Tech	0-3	-0.67
120.	New Mexico State	1-4	-0.67
121.	Boston College	0-3	-0.67
122.	South Florida	0-3	-0.67
123.	Ball State	0-3	-0.68
124.	Northern Illinois	0-3	-0.68
125.	Arizona State	0-3	-0.69
126.	Nebraska	0-3	-0.69
127.	Massachusetts	0-3	-0.72
128.	Connecticut	0-4	-0.78
129.	Colorado	0-4	-0.78
130.	Georgia State	0-4	-0.87
131.	Hawaii	0-4	-0.88

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