Ratings

  College Football

  College Basketball

  NFL Football
​

Articles

   What is the Bayesian Resume Rating?

   Predictive and Earned Rank Systems

   The Problem with RPI, Elo, and the Colley Matrix

   NFL Win/Loss Record History

   Strength of Schedule

   March Madness Bracket Scoring

   March Madness Seed History

   The Hot Hand "Fallacy"

   Mathematical Explanation of the Bayesian Resume Rating

   The Relationship Between Bayes' Theorem and P-Values

   A Typical March Madness Bracket
​

2021 NCAA Football Bayesian Resume Ratings

Published January 11th.
​​

Rank	Team	Record against FBS opponents	BRR
1.	Georgia	13-1	2.05
2.	Alabama	12-2	1.74
3.	Cincinnati	12-1	1.72
4.	Michigan	12-2	1.62
5.	Oklahoma State	11-2	1.61
6.	Baylor	11-2	1.56
7.	Ohio State	11-2	1.49
8.	Notre Dame	11-2	1.41
9.	Michigan State	10-2	1.41
10.	Louisiana	12-1	1.34
11.	Oklahoma	10-2	1.34
12.	San Diego State	11-2	1.30
13.	Houston	11-2	1.11
14.	Mississippi	9-3	1.08
15.	Texas-San Antonio	11-2	1.05
16.	Clemson	9-3	1.02
17.	Pittsburgh	10-3	0.97
18.	Wake Forest	10-3	0.95
19.	Brigham Young	9-3	0.91
20.	Wisconsin	9-4	0.91
21.	Iowa	10-4	0.90
22.	Utah State	10-3	0.89
23.	Kentucky	9-3	0.89
24.	Purdue	9-4	0.88
25.	Air Force	9-3	0.87
26.	Arkansas	8-4	0.84
27.	Utah	9-4	0.82
28.	Fresno State	9-3	0.78
29.	Oregon	9-4	0.76
30.	Coastal Carolina	10-2	0.75
31.	North Carolina State	8-3	0.72
32.	Appalachian State	9-4	0.68
33.	Minnesota	9-4	0.63
34.	Texas A&M	7-4	0.61
35.	Boise State	7-5	0.59
36.	Army	8-4	0.54
37.	Kansas State	7-5	0.49
38.	Alabama-Birmingham	8-4	0.44
39.	UCLA	8-4	0.42
40.	Central Florida	8-4	0.39
41.	Southern Methodist	7-4	0.38
42.	Penn State	6-6	0.35
43.	Miami (FL)	6-5	0.35
44.	Iowa State	6-6	0.34
45.	Central Michigan	8-4	0.34
46.	Western Kentucky	8-5	0.32
47.	Tulsa	7-5	0.31
48.	Northern Illinois	8-5	0.30
49.	Tennessee	6-6	0.29
50.	Nevada	7-5	0.28
51.	Georgia State	8-5	0.26
52.	Maryland	6-6	0.26
53.	Mississippi State	6-6	0.26
54.	Texas Tech	6-6	0.24
55.	Western Michigan	7-5	0.23
56.	South Carolina	6-6	0.18
57.	Liberty	7-5	0.18
58.	Auburn	5-7	0.17
59.	Arizona State	7-5	0.16
60.	East Carolina	6-5	0.15
61.	Louisiana State	5-7	0.09
62.	Texas	5-7	0.06
63.	West Virginia	5-7	0.01
64.	Washington State	6-6	-0.01
65.	Florida State	5-6	-0.01
66.	Oregon State	6-6	-0.02
67.	Louisville	5-7	-0.02
68.	Virginia	5-6	-0.03
69.	Missouri	5-7	-0.06
70.	Wyoming	6-6	-0.08
71.	North Carolina	5-7	-0.11
72.	Texas Christian	4-7	-0.14
73.	Marshall	6-6	-0.14
74.	Illinois	5-7	-0.15
75.	Florida	5-7	-0.16
76.	Memphis	5-6	-0.17
77.	Miami (OH)	6-6	-0.19
78.	Eastern Michigan	6-6	-0.19
79.	Navy	4-8	-0.22
80.	Kent State	6-7	-0.23
81.	Boston College	5-6	-0.25
82.	Toledo	6-6	-0.28
83.	Virginia Tech	5-7	-0.30
84.	Texas-El Paso	6-6	-0.31
85.	Syracuse	4-7	-0.33
86.	Ball State	5-7	-0.33
87.	Hawaii	5-7	-0.36
88.	Middle Tennessee State	6-6	-0.39
89.	Rutgers	4-8	-0.40
90.	North Texas	5-7	-0.49
91.	San Jose State	4-7	-0.51
92.	Troy	4-7	-0.56
93.	Old Dominion	5-7	-0.59
94.	Southern California	4-8	-0.60
95.	Washington	4-7	-0.61
96.	California	4-7	-0.62
97.	Texas State	4-7	-0.70
98.	Florida Atlantic	4-7	-0.71
99.	Louisiana-Monroe	3-8	-0.73
100.	Nebraska	2-9	-0.73
101.	South Alabama	4-7	-0.74
102.	Colorado	3-8	-0.74
103.	Colorado State	3-8	-0.76
104.	Stanford	3-9	-0.77
105.	Rice	3-8	-0.79
106.	Nevada-Las Vegas	2-9	-0.87
107.	Charlotte	4-7	-0.88
108.	Georgia Tech	2-9	-0.88
109.	Indiana	1-10	-0.91
110.	Bowling Green State	3-8	-0.98
111.	Northwestern	2-9	-0.98
112.	New Mexico	2-9	-1.02
113.	Ohio	3-8	-1.02
114.	Buffalo	3-8	-1.04
115.	Vanderbilt	2-9	-1.08
116.	Georgia Southern	2-9	-1.11
117.	Temple	2-9	-1.15
118.	Kansas	1-10	-1.17
119.	Tulane	1-10	-1.19
120.	Louisiana Tech	2-9	-1.19
121.	Duke	2-9	-1.24
122.	South Florida	1-10	-1.32
123.	Arizona	1-10	-1.36
124.	Southern Mississippi	2-9	-1.37
125.	New Mexico State	1-10	-1.48
126.	Arkansas State	1-10	-1.51
127.	Massachusetts	1-9	-1.51
128.	Akron	1-10	-1.66
129.	Connecticut	0-10	-1.76
130.	Florida International	0-11	-2.08

​