Ratings

  College Football

  College Basketball

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​

Articles

   What is the Bayesian Resume Rating?

   Predictive and Earned Rank Systems

   The Problem with RPI, Elo, and the Colley Matrix

   NFL Win/Loss Record History

   Strength of Schedule

   March Madness Bracket Scoring

   March Madness Seed History

   The Hot Hand "Fallacy"

   Mathematical Explanation of the Bayesian Resume Rating

   The Relationship Between Bayes' Theorem and P-Values

   A Typical March Madness Bracket
​

2021 NCAA Basketball Bayesian Resume Ratings

Championship: Baylor defeated Gonzaga​​​

Rank	Team	Record against D-I teams	BRR
1.	Gonzaga	30-1	3.02
2.	Baylor	28-2	2.82
3.	Houston	27-4	2.10
4.	Michigan	23-5	1.99
5.	Alabama	26-7	1.89
6.	Arkansas	25-7	1.86
7.	Illinois	24-7	1.84
8.	USC	25-8	1.83
9.	San Diego State	22-5	1.72
10.	Oklahoma State	21-9	1.71
11.	Loyola (IL)	24-5	1.63
12.	BYU	19-7	1.63
13.	Kansas	20-9	1.61
14.	Oregon	21-7	1.60
15.	Texas	19-8	1.60
16.	UCLA	22-10	1.55
17.	West Virginia	19-10	1.51
18.	Winthrop	23-2	1.50
19.	Iowa	22-9	1.47
20.	Colorado	23-9	1.46
21.	Villanova	18-7	1.45
22.	Colgate	14-2	1.44
23.	Drake	24-5	1.44
24.	Ohio State	21-10	1.44
25.	Florida State	18-7	1.38
26.	Creighton	22-9	1.35
27.	LSU	19-10	1.34
28.	Virginia	18-7	1.30
29.	Wichita State	14-6	1.29
30.	St. Bonaventure	16-5	1.29
31.	Memphis	20-8	1.29
32.	VCU	19-7	1.26
33.	Belmont	25-4	1.25
34.	Texas Tech	18-11	1.25
35.	Clemson	16-8	1.24
36.	Western Kentucky	21-8	1.21
37.	Louisiana Tech	23-8	1.21
38.	Tennessee	18-9	1.21
39.	Missouri	16-10	1.20
40.	Navy	15-3	1.18
41.	Purdue	18-10	1.16
42.	Arizona	17-9	1.15
43.	Oklahoma	16-11	1.12
44.	UCSB	18-5	1.11
45.	Colorado State	19-8	1.10
46.	Oregon State	19-13	1.10
47.	Syracuse	18-10	1.09
48.	Georgia Tech	17-9	1.07
49.	UConn	15-8	1.05
50.	UNC	18-11	1.01
51.	Utah State	19-9	1.01
52.	Saint Mary's (CA)	14-10	1.00
53.	Wisconsin	18-13	1.00
54.	Rutgers	16-12	0.99
55.	Virginia Tech	15-7	0.99
56.	Boise State	18-9	0.98
57.	Louisville	13-7	0.98
58.	Abilene Christian	19-5	0.93
59.	Florida	15-10	0.93
60.	Alabama-Birmingham	20-7	0.91
61.	Maryland	16-14	0.88
62.	North Texas	17-10	0.87
63.	SMU	11-6	0.86
64.	Morehead State	21-8	0.86
65.	North Carolina-Greensboro	21-9	0.84
66.	Xavier	13-8	0.84
67.	Marshall	15-7	0.82
68.	Ohio	16-8	0.79
69.	Georgia State	14-6	0.78
70.	Saint Louis	14-7	0.76
71.	Michigan State	15-13	0.76
72.	St. John's (NY)	16-11	0.73
73.	Toledo	21-9	0.72
74.	Missouri State	15-7	0.72
75.	Wright State	18-6	0.72
76.	Georgetown	13-13	0.70
77.	Loyola Marymount	13-9	0.70
78.	Southern Utah	14-4	0.70
79.	Ole Miss	16-12	0.70
80.	Cleveland State	19-8	0.69
81.	Liberty	18-6	0.69
82.	Mississippi State	18-15	0.67
83.	Stanford	14-13	0.67
84.	Richmond	13-9	0.63
85.	Seton Hall	14-13	0.63
86.	Old Dominion	14-8	0.62
87.	Eastern Kentucky	20-7	0.62
88.	Auburn	13-14	0.60
89.	Texas State	17-6	0.59
90.	Georgia	13-12	0.57
91.	Nevada	15-10	0.57
92.	Prairie View	16-5	0.56
93.	Siena	12-5	0.56
94.	Minnesota	14-15	0.55
95.	Dayton	14-10	0.54
96.	Washington State	14-13	0.53
97.	Cincinnati	12-11	0.52
98.	Duke	12-11	0.52
99.	Chattanooga	15-8	0.52
100.	Santa Clara	11-8	0.51
101.	Pepperdine	12-12	0.51
102.	North Carolina State	14-11	0.51
103.	Utah	12-13	0.50
104.	Providence	13-13	0.49
105.	South Dakota State	15-7	0.49
106.	Indiana	12-15	0.49
107.	Penn State	11-14	0.48
108.	Buffalo	15-9	0.48
109.	Wofford	13-9	0.48
110.	UCF	11-12	0.47
111.	Kent State	14-8	0.47
112.	Iona	12-6	0.46
113.	Davidson	12-9	0.45
114.	Marquette	13-14	0.44
115.	Furman	13-9	0.44
116.	Indiana State	14-10	0.44
117.	UMBC	14-6	0.43
118.	Texas Southern	16-9	0.42
119.	Eastern Washington	15-8	0.41
120.	Coastal Carolina	14-8	0.41
121.	Texas Christian	12-14	0.41
122.	Mercer	15-11	0.41
123.	Norfolk State	15-8	0.40
124.	UC-Irvine	13-9	0.39
125.	UC-Riverside	12-7	0.38
126.	Bryant	14-7	0.38
127.	Arizona State	11-14	0.36
128.	Akron	13-8	0.36
129.	Army	11-9	0.35
130.	Jacksonville State	16-9	0.35
131.	Weber State	13-6	0.35
132.	Pacific	8-9	0.35
133.	Stephen F. Austin	13-5	0.34
134.	Nicholls State	17-7	0.34
135.	George Mason	12-9	0.33
136.	Louisiana-Lafayette	15-9	0.32
137.	Wagner	13-7	0.31
138.	James Madison	10-7	0.31
139.	Sam Houston State	15-9	0.29
140.	Oral Roberts	15-11	0.28
141.	Hartford	15-9	0.26
142.	Drexel	12-8	0.24
143.	Monmouth	12-8	0.24
144.	Wyoming	14-11	0.23
145.	Vermont	10-5	0.22
146.	Kentucky	9-16	0.20
147.	Northeastern	10-9	0.19
148.	Morgan State	12-7	0.19
149.	Hofstra	13-10	0.19
150.	Butler	10-15	0.17
151.	ETSU	11-12	0.16
152.	Tulsa	9-12	0.15
153.	South Alabama	13-11	0.14
154.	Grand Canyon	10-7	0.12
155.	Pitt	10-12	0.11
156.	UMass	8-7	0.10
157.	Appalachian State	13-12	0.08
158.	Duquesne	9-9	0.07
159.	UTSA	11-11	0.06
160.	Notre Dame	10-15	0.04
161.	Canisius	7-6	0.03
162.	San Francisco	11-14	0.03
163.	Northwestern	8-15	0.03
164.	Jackson State	12-6	0.03
165.	St. Peter's	14-11	0.02
166.	Mount St. Mary's	12-11	0.00
167.	Tulane	10-13	-0.01
168.	Marist	12-9	-0.01
169.	Bowling Green State	13-12	-0.01
170.	Lafayette	9-6	-0.02
171.	Texas A&M	7-10	-0.03
172.	Rice	12-13	-0.03
173.	South Florida	8-13	-0.04
174.	Northern Kentucky	14-11	-0.04
175.	UC-Davis	8-7	-0.05
176.	Campbell	15-10	-0.08
177.	Fresno State	10-12	-0.09
178.	North Dakota State	15-12	-0.09
179.	Detroit	12-10	-0.10
180.	Virginia Military Institute	10-12	-0.10
181.	Kansas State	9-19	-0.11
182.	Miami (FL)	10-17	-0.11
183.	East Carolina	7-11	-0.11
184.	Cal State Bakersfield	11-11	-0.11
185.	UTEP	9-12	-0.11
186.	Elon	9-9	-0.12
187.	American	4-6	-0.12
188.	Rhode Island	10-15	-0.12
189.	Vanderbilt	9-16	-0.16
190.	Citadel	9-12	-0.17
191.	Miami (OH)	11-11	-0.18
192.	South Dakota	13-11	-0.20
193.	Florida Gulf Coast	8-6	-0.21
194.	Sacred Heart	9-9	-0.22
195.	Howard	1-2	-0.23
196.	South Carolina	6-15	-0.23
197.	Merrimack	9-9	-0.23
198.	LIU-Brooklyn	9-9	-0.24
199.	Hawaii	9-10	-0.24
200.	Southern Illinois	11-14	-0.25
201.	Boston University	7-11	-0.26
202.	Ball State	10-13	-0.26
203.	UMass-Lowell	11-12	-0.27
204.	New Hampshire	9-9	-0.27
205.	University of California	8-20	-0.28
206.	UNLV	10-15	-0.29
207.	Utah Valley	7-9	-0.30
208.	Niagara	9-11	-0.30
209.	Bradley	10-16	-0.31
210.	Bucknell	5-7	-0.31
211.	St. Francis (NY)	9-10	-0.31
212.	Montana State	11-10	-0.31
213.	Radford	13-12	-0.31
214.	Temple	5-11	-0.33
215.	Loyola (MD)	6-11	-0.34
216.	North Alabama	9-9	-0.34
217.	Milwaukee	10-12	-0.36
218.	Florida Atlantic	9-10	-0.37
219.	College of Charleston	7-10	-0.38
220.	Coppin State	9-13	-0.39
221.	Texas-Arlington	10-13	-0.39
222.	Delaware	6-8	-0.40
223.	Georgia Southern	9-13	-0.41
224.	Albany (NY)	7-9	-0.41
225.	Youngstown State	11-12	-0.42
226.	North Carolina-Asheville	10-10	-0.42
227.	IUPUI	8-10	-0.42
228.	Montana	10-13	-0.43
229.	Northern Iowa	8-15	-0.43
230.	Arkansas-Little Rock	10-15	-0.43
231.	Oakland	12-18	-0.43
232.	William & Mary	7-10	-0.46
233.	New Mexico State	6-7	-0.47
234.	DePaul	5-14	-0.48
235.	Nebraska	6-20	-0.48
236.	Quinnipiac	9-13	-0.48
237.	Evansville	9-16	-0.49
238.	Western Carolina	9-16	-0.50
239.	La Salle	8-16	-0.50
240.	Stetson	9-12	-0.50
241.	Charlotte	9-15	-0.51
242.	Austin Peay	12-13	-0.51
243.	Holy Cross	5-11	-0.53
244.	Lipscomb	9-12	-0.53
245.	Cal State Fullerton	5-8	-0.54
246.	Grambling	11-12	-0.55
247.	Murray State	11-13	-0.56
248.	North Carolina A&T	9-10	-0.57
249.	Fairfield	10-17	-0.59
250.	Arkansas State	8-13	-0.59
251.	Fairleigh Dickinson	9-15	-0.60
252.	Washington	5-21	-0.61
253.	Troy	8-17	-0.62
254.	Cal State Northridge	8-13	-0.63
255.	St. Joseph's	5-15	-0.63
256.	Stony Brook	8-14	-0.64
257.	Seattle	7-10	-0.66
258.	Gardner-Webb	11-15	-0.67
259.	Jacksonville	9-11	-0.67
260.	Northern Colorado	8-11	-0.68
261.	Longwood	12-16	-0.69
262.	North Carolina-Wilmington	6-10	-0.70
263.	Valparaiso	8-18	-0.71
264.	California Baptist	6-9	-0.72
265.	Idaho State	8-11	-0.73
266.	Manhattan	7-13	-0.74
267.	Wake Forest	5-16	-0.74
268.	San Diego	3-11	-0.74
269.	UIC	9-13	-0.74
270.	NJIT	7-12	-0.74
271.	Southeast Missouri State	11-16	-0.77
272.	George Washington	5-12	-0.78
273.	Southern	8-11	-0.78
274.	Alabama A&M	6-9	-0.82
275.	Long Beach State	6-12	-0.82
276.	Samford	4-13	-0.84
277.	Hampton	11-14	-0.85
278.	Boston College	4-16	-0.85
279.	Green Bay	8-17	-0.85
280.	IPFW	8-15	-0.86
281.	UMKC	7-13	-0.87
282.	Sacramento State	6-12	-0.88
283.	North Dakota	9-16	-0.88
284.	Lehigh	4-11	-0.89
285.	Florida A&M	8-12	-0.91
286.	North Florida	7-14	-0.92
287.	Saint Francis (PA)	6-16	-0.92
288.	Portland State	6-12	-0.94
289.	Rider	6-17	-0.95
290.	High Point	9-15	-0.97
291.	Texas-Rio Grande Valley	3-8	-0.99
292.	Illinois State	6-18	-0.99
293.	Northwestern State	10-18	-0.99
294.	Maine	2-7	-1.00
295.	Portland	3-15	-1.01
296.	Lamar	10-18	-1.03
297.	Louisiana-Monroe	7-19	-1.03
298.	Alcorn State	6-13	-1.04
299.	Southern Miss	6-17	-1.05
300.	Towson	4-14	-1.06
301.	UT-Martin	7-16	-1.06
302.	Southern Illinois-Edwardsville	8-17	-1.06
303.	Central Connecticut	5-16	-1.07
304.	Northern Arizona	6-16	-1.09
305.	North Carolina Central	4-9	-1.09
306.	New Orleans	9-15	-1.11
307.	Eastern Illinois	9-18	-1.11
308.	Binghamton	4-14	-1.12
309.	Florida International	5-17	-1.19
310.	Eastern Michigan	3-12	-1.20
311.	Air Force	5-20	-1.20
312.	Iowa State	2-22	-1.21
313.	Fordham	2-12	-1.24
314.	Central Michigan	5-15	-1.26
315.	Western Michigan	4-16	-1.26
316.	Western Illinois	6-15	-1.33
317.	Middle Tennessee	4-18	-1.34
318.	South Carolina Upstate	5-17	-1.34
319.	Presbyterian	6-15	-1.36
320.	Southeastern Louisiana	8-18	-1.37
321.	San Jose State	3-16	-1.41
322.	New Mexico	3-16	-1.41
323.	Robert Morris	3-15	-1.44
324.	Central Arkansas	4-19	-1.45
325.	Tennessee Tech	5-22	-1.48
326.	Incarnate Word	5-14	-1.54
327.	Northern Illinois	3-16	-1.55
328.	Nebraska-Omaha	5-20	-1.59
329.	Houston Baptist	5-19	-1.61
330.	Cal Poly	3-20	-1.63
331.	Alabama State	4-14	-1.63
332.	Kennesaw State	2-17	-1.69
333.	Arkansas-Pine Bluff	4-21	-1.76
334.	Chicago State	0-9	-1.76
335.	Delaware State	1-16	-1.78
336.	McNeese State	4-14	-1.79
337.	Tennessee State	3-19	-1.80
338.	Charleston Southern	2-18	-1.95
339.	Mississippi Valley State	2-22	-2.09
340.	Texas A&M-Corpus Christi	2-19	-2.11
341.	South Carolina State	1-17	-2.21
342.	Idaho	1-21	-2.24
343.	Denver	1-18	-2.32

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Reading material for analytics-minded people:
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