Ratings

  College Football

  College Basketball

  NFL Football
​

Articles

   What is the Bayesian Resume Rating?

   Predictive and Earned Rank Systems

   The Problem with RPI, Elo, and the Colley Matrix

   NFL Win/Loss Record History

   Strength of Schedule

   March Madness Bracket Scoring

   March Madness Seed History

   The Hot Hand "Fallacy"

   Mathematical Explanation of the Bayesian Resume Rating

   The Relationship Between Bayes' Theorem and P-Values

   A Typical March Madness Bracket
​

2021 NCAA Football Bayesian Resume Ratings

Published September 26th.
​​

Rank	Team	Record against FBS opponents	BRR
1.	Michigan	4-0	1.14
2.	Arkansas	4-0	1.05
3.	Georgia	4-0	1.04
4.	Notre Dame	4-0	1.02
5.	Brigham Young	4-0	0.95
6.	Iowa	4-0	0.95
7.	Oregon	3-0	0.93
8.	Oklahoma State	3-0	0.91
9.	Kentucky	3-0	0.85
10.	Alabama	3-0	0.85
11.	Army	4-0	0.84
12.	Penn State	3-0	0.82
13.	Michigan State	3-0	0.79
14.	Texas-San Antonio	3-0	0.78
15.	Southern Methodist	3-0	0.77
16.	Baylor	3-0	0.76
17.	Oklahoma	3-0	0.75
18.	Boston College	3-0	0.75
19.	Maryland	3-0	0.74
20.	Wyoming	3-0	0.71
21.	Wake Forest	3-0	0.70
22.	San Diego State	3-0	0.70
23.	Coastal Carolina	3-0	0.69
24.	Mississippi	2-0	0.61
25.	Texas	3-1	0.61
26.	UCLA	3-1	0.56
27.	Cincinnati	2-0	0.55
28.	South Alabama	2-0	0.54
29.	Fresno State	3-1	0.53
30.	Purdue	3-1	0.52
31.	Ohio State	3-1	0.51
32.	Florida	3-1	0.49
33.	Texas A&M	3-1	0.46
34.	Rutgers	2-1	0.41
35.	Western Michigan	2-1	0.40
36.	Kansas State	2-1	0.39
37.	Louisiana State	2-1	0.32
38.	Memphis	2-1	0.30
39.	Louisville	2-1	0.29
40.	Texas Tech	2-1	0.28
41.	Oregon State	2-1	0.28
42.	Syracuse	2-1	0.27
43.	Auburn	2-1	0.25
44.	Alabama-Birmingham	2-1	0.24
45.	Washington	2-1	0.24
46.	Utah State	2-1	0.23
47.	Arizona State	2-1	0.22
48.	Pittsburgh	2-1	0.21
49.	Duke	2-1	0.20
50.	Appalachian State	2-1	0.20
51.	Liberty	2-1	0.19
52.	North Carolina State	2-1	0.19
53.	Air Force	2-1	0.19
54.	Virginia Tech	2-1	0.19
55.	Louisiana	2-1	0.18
56.	Charlotte	2-1	0.17
57.	Texas-El Paso	2-1	0.15
58.	Houston	2-1	0.15
59.	Eastern Michigan	2-1	0.15
60.	Boise State	2-2	0.14
61.	Stanford	2-2	0.07
62.	Louisiana-Monroe	1-1	0.06
63.	Central Florida	1-1	0.06
64.	Mississippi State	2-2	0.05
65.	Texas Christian	1-1	-0.01
66.	Nevada	1-1	-0.06
67.	Wisconsin	1-2	-0.08
68.	North Carolina	2-2	-0.08
69.	Southern California	2-2	-0.09
70.	Miami (FL)	1-2	-0.09
71.	West Virginia	1-2	-0.10
72.	South Carolina	1-2	-0.13
73.	Northern Illinois	1-2	-0.13
74.	Minnesota	2-2	-0.14
75.	Missouri	1-2	-0.16
76.	Clemson	1-2	-0.20
77.	Indiana	1-2	-0.20
78.	Iowa State	1-2	-0.20
79.	Vanderbilt	1-2	-0.21
80.	Utah	1-2	-0.22
81.	Tulsa	1-2	-0.24
82.	Tennessee	1-2	-0.24
83.	Colorado State	1-2	-0.25
84.	Temple	1-2	-0.26
85.	Bowling Green State	1-2	-0.27
86.	Northwestern	1-2	-0.28
87.	Virginia	1-2	-0.29
88.	Texas State	1-2	-0.29
89.	Louisiana Tech	1-2	-0.30
90.	Toledo	1-2	-0.30
91.	Florida Atlantic	1-2	-0.31
92.	San Jose State	1-2	-0.32
93.	East Carolina	1-2	-0.32
94.	Georgia Tech	1-2	-0.33
95.	New Mexico	1-2	-0.34
96.	Troy	1-2	-0.34
97.	Buffalo	1-2	-0.37
98.	Central Michigan	1-2	-0.37
99.	Marshall	1-2	-0.40
100.	Georgia State	1-3	-0.40
101.	Nebraska	1-3	-0.49
102.	Hawaii	1-3	-0.58
103.	Western Kentucky	0-2	-0.59
104.	Illinois	1-4	-0.62
105.	Arizona	0-3	-0.64
106.	Kent State	0-3	-0.67
107.	Florida State	0-3	-0.69
108.	Rice	0-3	-0.71
109.	Kansas	0-3	-0.72
110.	Tulane	0-3	-0.72
111.	South Florida	0-3	-0.72
112.	Miami (OH)	0-3	-0.76
113.	Ball State	0-3	-0.77
114.	Middle Tennessee State	0-3	-0.77
115.	Southern Mississippi	0-3	-0.78
116.	Georgia Southern	0-3	-0.80
117.	North Texas	0-3	-0.81
118.	Nevada-Las Vegas	0-3	-0.83
119.	Colorado	0-3	-0.83
120.	Akron	0-3	-0.83
121.	Old Dominion	0-3	-0.83
122.	Connecticut	0-4	-0.84
123.	Arkansas State	0-3	-0.85
124.	California	0-3	-0.86
125.	Ohio	0-3	-0.86
126.	Navy	0-3	-0.88
127.	Washington State	0-3	-0.89
128.	Massachusetts	0-4	-0.91
129.	Florida International	0-3	-0.92
130.	New Mexico State	0-4	-1.08

​