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   What is the Bayesian Resume Rating?

   Predictive and Earned Rank Systems

   The Problem with RPI, Elo, and the Colley Matrix

   NFL Win/Loss Record History

   Strength of Schedule

   March Madness Bracket Scoring

   March Madness Seed History

   The Hot Hand "Fallacy"

   Mathematical Explanation of the Bayesian Resume Rating

   The Relationship Between Bayes' Theorem and P-Values

   A Typical March Madness Bracket

2020 NCAA Basketball Bayesian Resume Ratings

Final standings for the 2019-2020 season

Rank	Team	Record against D-I teams	BRR
1.	Kansas	27-3	2.63
2.	Dayton	29-2	2.47
3.	Gonzaga	31-2	2.40
4.	San Diego State	29-2	2.26
5.	Baylor	26-4	2.22
6.	Florida State	26-5	1.98
7.	Villanova	24-7	1.93
8.	Duke	25-6	1.85
9.	Creighton	23-7	1.83
10.	Maryland	24-7	1.78
11.	Auburn	25-6	1.77
12.	Oregon	24-7	1.76
13.	Louisville	24-7	1.74
14.	Kentucky	25-6	1.72
15.	Virginia	23-7	1.63
16.	Seton Hall	21-9	1.60
17.	ETSU	27-4	1.59
18.	BYU	23-8	1.57
19.	Butler	22-9	1.56
20.	Saint Mary's (CA)	24-8	1.54
21.	Michigan State	22-9	1.54
22.	West Virginia	21-10	1.49
23.	Houston	23-8	1.42
24.	Richmond	24-7	1.40
25.	Ohio State	21-10	1.39
26.	Wichita State	23-8	1.37
27.	Wisconsin	21-10	1.37
28.	USC	22-9	1.36
29.	Arizona	21-11	1.31
30.	Utah State	24-8	1.31
31.	Saint Louis	22-8	1.31
32.	LSU	21-10	1.30
33.	Colorado	21-11	1.30
34.	Arizona State	20-11	1.26
35.	Rhode Island	21-9	1.25
36.	Illinois	20-10	1.25
37.	Penn State	21-10	1.24
38.	Northern Iowa	23-6	1.24
39.	Oklahoma	19-12	1.21
40.	Iowa	20-11	1.21
41.	Michigan	19-12	1.20
42.	Stephen F. Austin	25-3	1.19
43.	Marquette	18-12	1.19
44.	Rutgers	19-11	1.18
45.	Florida	19-12	1.16
46.	Cincinnati	20-10	1.16
47.	Indiana	20-12	1.14
48.	Xavier	19-13	1.13
49.	Texas	19-12	1.13
50.	Providence	19-12	1.13
51.	Memphis	21-10	1.11
52.	Akron	22-7	1.10
53.	Liberty	28-4	1.07
54.	Mississippi State	20-11	1.07
55.	North Carolina State	20-12	1.06
56.	Stanford	20-12	1.06
57.	Arkansas	20-12	1.04
58.	Furman	22-7	1.01
59.	Texas Tech	18-13	0.99
60.	UCLA	18-12	0.98
61.	Oklahoma State	18-14	0.98
62.	Duquesne	21-9	0.96
63.	Notre Dame	20-12	0.96
64.	Yale	21-7	0.94
65.	Tulsa	21-10	0.91
66.	Vermont	25-7	0.90
67.	San Francisco	21-12	0.89
68.	Tennessee	17-14	0.88
69.	New Mexico State	23-6	0.87
70.	UConn	19-12	0.85
71.	St. John's (NY)	17-15	0.85
72.	Oregon State	18-13	0.83
73.	Purdue	16-15	0.83
74.	North Carolina-Greensboro	21-9	0.83
75.	South Carolina	18-13	0.82
76.	Georgia Tech	16-14	0.82
77.	Syracuse	18-14	0.82
78.	Boise State	19-12	0.79
79.	Harvard	20-8	0.78
80.	Utah	16-15	0.75
81.	Hofstra	25-8	0.74
82.	Pacific	21-10	0.74
83.	VCU	18-13	0.73
84.	Clemson	16-15	0.72
85.	Georgetown	15-17	0.72
86.	Alabama	16-15	0.72
87.	SMU	19-11	0.71
88.	Nevada	19-12	0.71
89.	Minnesota	15-16	0.70
90.	Eastern Washington	21-8	0.68
91.	Louisiana Tech	20-8	0.68
92.	Texas A&M	16-14	0.67
93.	Colorado State	19-12	0.67
94.	DePaul	15-16	0.67
95.	Texas Christian	15-16	0.66
96.	Bradley	22-11	0.65
97.	Belmont	25-7	0.65
98.	Georgia	15-16	0.64
99.	Western Kentucky	19-10	0.63
100.	Bowling Green State	19-10	0.63
101.	Wright State	23-7	0.63
102.	Miami (FL)	15-16	0.62
103.	Washington	15-17	0.60
104.	North Texas	18-11	0.58
105.	St. Bonaventure	18-12	0.58
106.	Loyola (IL)	20-11	0.57
107.	North Dakota State	23-8	0.57
108.	Colgate	24-9	0.55
109.	Indiana State	17-12	0.54
110.	Virginia Tech	16-16	0.53
111.	Pitt	16-17	0.53
112.	UNLV	17-15	0.52
113.	Northern Colorado	20-9	0.52
114.	UNC	14-19	0.51
115.	Missouri	15-16	0.51
116.	Arkansas-Little Rock	20-10	0.50
117.	University of California	14-18	0.50
118.	Buffalo	19-12	0.49
119.	UCF	16-14	0.46
120.	Davidson	16-14	0.46
121.	Washington State	16-16	0.44
122.	Kent State	18-12	0.43
123.	Ole Miss	15-17	0.43
124.	New Mexico	18-14	0.42
125.	Northern Kentucky	21-9	0.41
126.	Texas State	19-11	0.41
127.	Delaware	21-11	0.39
128.	Santa Clara	18-13	0.38
129.	Temple	14-17	0.35
130.	William & Mary	20-11	0.34
131.	Wake Forest	13-18	0.33
132.	Drake	18-14	0.32
133.	Pepperdine	16-15	0.31
134.	Boston College	13-19	0.31
135.	Iowa State	12-20	0.30
136.	Western Carolina	17-12	0.30
137.	South Alabama	17-11	0.30
138.	UC-Irvine	19-11	0.30
139.	George Mason	17-15	0.29
140.	Winthrop	22-10	0.29
141.	UMass	14-17	0.28
142.	Murray State	21-9	0.28
143.	Penn	15-11	0.28
144.	Saint Francis (PA)	21-10	0.26
145.	Siena	20-10	0.26
146.	Valparaiso	18-16	0.25
147.	South Dakota State	20-10	0.24
148.	Chattanooga	18-13	0.24
149.	Towson	17-13	0.24
150.	La Salle	15-15	0.23
151.	South Florida	14-17	0.22
152.	Montana	17-12	0.21
153.	Georgia Southern	18-13	0.21
154.	Georgia State	17-13	0.19
155.	UCSB	19-10	0.18
156.	Radford	19-11	0.18
157.	North Florida	19-12	0.17
158.	Kansas State	11-21	0.17
159.	Ball State	17-13	0.17
160.	College of Charleston	16-14	0.15
161.	Stony Brook	19-13	0.14
162.	Northern Illinois	17-13	0.12
163.	Missouri State	16-17	0.10
164.	Austin Peay	19-12	0.09
165.	Boston University	20-13	0.09
166.	Ohio	15-15	0.07
167.	Wofford	17-16	0.07
168.	Appalachian State	16-15	0.05
169.	Toledo	16-15	0.05
170.	Marshall	16-15	0.04
171.	Brown	14-12	0.04
172.	Florida International	16-13	0.04
173.	Southern Illinois	15-16	0.04
174.	Charlotte	16-13	0.02
175.	California Baptist	17-10	0.01
176.	Merrimack	19-11	0.01
177.	Rider	18-12	0.01
178.	Alabama-Birmingham	17-13	0.00
179.	Lafayette	18-12	0.00
180.	South Dakota	17-12	-0.01
181.	Nicholls State	17-10	-0.02
182.	Hawaii	16-13	-0.03
183.	Princeton	13-13	-0.05
184.	Monmouth	18-13	-0.05
185.	Vanderbilt	11-21	-0.06
186.	Portland State	16-14	-0.07
187.	Northeastern	17-16	-0.08
188.	St. Peter's	18-12	-0.08
189.	Tulane	12-18	-0.08
190.	Sacred Heart	19-13	-0.12
191.	Eastern Michigan	12-16	-0.13
192.	UTEP	14-15	-0.15
193.	Robert Morris	19-14	-0.16
194.	Nebraska-Omaha	15-16	-0.16
195.	Mercer	15-15	-0.16
196.	Oral Roberts	13-14	-0.18
197.	Southern Utah	15-15	-0.18
198.	Texas-Arlington	12-18	-0.19
199.	Abilene Christian	16-11	-0.20
200.	Arkansas State	14-16	-0.20
201.	Coastal Carolina	14-17	-0.20
202.	American	16-14	-0.21
203.	Montana State	14-15	-0.22
204.	Northern Arizona	14-14	-0.23
205.	Sacramento State	14-14	-0.23
206.	Green Bay	15-16	-0.25
207.	Florida Atlantic	14-15	-0.26
208.	UIC	17-17	-0.26
209.	Youngstown State	16-15	-0.28
210.	Northwestern	8-23	-0.29
211.	George Washington	12-20	-0.30
212.	Miami (OH)	11-19	-0.34
213.	Hartford	16-15	-0.34
214.	Prairie View	17-13	-0.34
215.	Cal State Northridge	13-17	-0.34
216.	Air Force	11-20	-0.38
217.	Old Dominion	13-19	-0.38
218.	Rice	13-17	-0.38
219.	Central Michigan	11-18	-0.39
220.	UMKC	13-14	-0.39
221.	Quinnipiac	15-15	-0.40
222.	Tennessee State	16-15	-0.40
223.	Loyola Marymount	10-21	-0.40
224.	Fresno State	10-19	-0.41
225.	Drexel	13-19	-0.41
226.	Louisiana-Lafayette	13-19	-0.43
227.	East Carolina	11-20	-0.44
228.	Army	14-15	-0.46
229.	Western Michigan	11-19	-0.46
230.	Sam Houston State	14-13	-0.46
231.	Lipscomb	14-16	-0.46
232.	Illinois State	9-21	-0.47
233.	Nebraska	7-25	-0.47
234.	UC-Riverside	14-15	-0.48
235.	North Carolina Central	15-13	-0.49
236.	Texas Southern	15-16	-0.50
237.	North Carolina A&T	16-15	-0.50
238.	Bucknell	14-20	-0.51
239.	Navy	13-16	-0.52
240.	Gardner-Webb	14-16	-0.52
241.	Seattle	12-15	-0.53
242.	UMBC	12-17	-0.53
243.	Grand Canyon	13-16	-0.54
244.	North Dakota	12-18	-0.54
245.	Oakland	13-19	-0.55
246.	New Hampshire	13-15	-0.56
247.	UTSA	10-19	-0.57
248.	Eastern Kentucky	14-17	-0.58
249.	Dartmouth	11-17	-0.59
250.	Lamar	14-15	-0.59
251.	Stetson	14-17	-0.62
252.	UC-Davis	12-18	-0.63
253.	LIU-Brooklyn	14-18	-0.63
254.	Loyola (MD)	14-17	-0.64
255.	Iona	12-17	-0.64
256.	Southern	15-15	-0.64
257.	Albany (NY)	13-18	-0.65
258.	Bryant	14-17	-0.67
259.	Eastern Illinois	15-15	-0.68
260.	San Diego	8-23	-0.69
261.	Manhattan	13-18	-0.69
262.	Norfolk State	13-14	-0.70
263.	Florida A&M	12-15	-0.71
264.	St. Joseph's	6-26	-0.71
265.	Texas-Rio Grande Valley	10-16	-0.71
266.	Niagara	12-20	-0.72
267.	Long Beach State	9-21	-0.73
268.	Wyoming	8-24	-0.74
269.	Canisius	12-20	-0.74
270.	UMass-Lowell	12-19	-0.75
271.	Fairfield	12-20	-0.75
272.	Bethune-Cookman	13-14	-0.75
273.	Elon	10-21	-0.77
274.	North Carolina-Asheville	13-16	-0.77
275.	Weber State	9-20	-0.77
276.	Campbell	13-16	-0.78
277.	Hampton	12-19	-0.79
278.	Jacksonville	12-18	-0.80
279.	Evansville	8-23	-0.81
280.	San Jose State	6-24	-0.81
281.	IPFW	11-19	-0.82
282.	Fordham	9-22	-0.83
283.	Cleveland State	10-21	-0.83
284.	Northwestern State	12-15	-0.84
285.	Milwaukee	10-19	-0.84
286.	St. Francis (NY)	12-18	-0.85
287.	Grambling	13-15	-0.86
288.	Charleston Southern	12-18	-0.87
289.	Cal State Fullerton	9-20	-0.88
290.	Louisiana-Monroe	7-20	-0.89
291.	Jackson State	13-17	-0.90
292.	Lehigh	9-21	-0.91
293.	North Alabama	11-17	-0.91
294.	Portland	7-23	-0.92
295.	Texas A&M-Corpus Christi	12-18	-0.94
296.	South Carolina Upstate	11-20	-0.95
297.	Fairleigh Dickinson	10-19	-0.95
298.	North Carolina-Wilmington	7-22	-0.95
299.	Cal State Bakersfield	9-19	-0.96
300.	Alcorn State	11-15	-0.97
301.	Morgan State	12-16	-0.97
302.	James Madison	8-21	-0.97
303.	Longwood	12-18	-1.00
304.	McNeese State	11-17	-1.00
305.	Southern Miss	6-22	-1.03
306.	Binghamton	8-19	-1.04
307.	Troy	7-22	-1.04
308.	Utah Valley	8-19	-1.07
309.	Detroit	8-23	-1.08
310.	Central Arkansas	9-21	-1.08
311.	Morehead State	11-19	-1.10
312.	Maine	8-22	-1.11
313.	Mount St. Mary's	10-21	-1.11
314.	Jacksonville State	11-19	-1.12
315.	Idaho State	6-22	-1.14
316.	Coppin State	11-20	-1.21
317.	Florida Gulf Coast	8-22	-1.23
318.	NJIT	8-21	-1.24
319.	Cornell	5-20	-1.25
320.	Samford	7-23	-1.25
321.	Middle Tennessee	5-23	-1.28
322.	South Carolina State	9-18	-1.29
323.	Cal Poly	5-23	-1.30
324.	Idaho	6-24	-1.31
325.	High Point	7-23	-1.33
326.	Wagner	7-21	-1.34
327.	Presbyterian	8-22	-1.37
328.	Tennessee Tech	7-22	-1.38
329.	UT-Martin	7-20	-1.38
330.	Virginia Military Institute	6-24	-1.41
331.	Denver	6-24	-1.41
332.	Marist	7-23	-1.47
333.	Columbia	5-24	-1.51
334.	IUPUI	5-25	-1.53
335.	Alabama State	8-24	-1.54
336.	Alabama A&M	8-22	-1.57
337.	Southern Illinois-Edwardsville	6-23	-1.65
338.	New Orleans	5-21	-1.70
339.	Western Illinois	3-21	-1.71
340.	Incarnate Word	6-22	-1.75
341.	Southeastern Louisiana	5-23	-1.76
342.	Citadel	3-24	-1.82
343.	Holy Cross	3-28	-1.86
344.	Southeast Missouri State	5-24	-1.86
345.	Houston Baptist	4-25	-1.93
346.	Central Connecticut	3-27	-2.01
347.	Delaware State	5-25	-2.03
348.	Maryland-Eastern Shore	4-27	-2.17
349.	Arkansas-Pine Bluff	3-26	-2.20
350.	Howard	3-28	-2.30
351.	Mississippi Valley State	3-27	-2.31
352.	Kennesaw State	1-28	-2.35
353.	Chicago State	1-25	-2.40